According to statistics from TrendForce, the volume of photovoltaic module tenders from January to September 2024 was approximately 202.7GW, +10.64% year-on-year. Among them, N-type module tenders were approximately 179GW, accounting for 88.3%.
The peak season for large-scale component purchasing ends
Looking at a single month, a total of about 9.4GW of photovoltaic module tenders were announced in September 2024. In August, multiple large-scale centralized procurement projects were tendered, most of which were in preparation for grid-connected projects before the end of 2024, and some projects were planned for Q1-Q2 of 2025. Tendering required. According to statistics, approximately 2GW modules in September were required to delivery before the end of 2024. Among them, N-type module bidding volume reaches 7.7GW, accounting for 82.2% and the P-type module bidding scale was about 1.2GW, accounting for about 12.4%. Some projects still choose P-type modules, so the proportion has a short-term upward trend, but N-type modules are still the mainstream demand in the market.
Chart: China module monthly bidding capacity (MW) from 2023 to September 2024
The average bidding price of P-type module projects continues to decline
In September 2024, the bidding for CEEC 1GW and SPIC's 100MW P-type photovoltaic module were opened. CEEC's P-type photovoltaic module tender mainly focuses on 182mm and 210mm size, the bidding price was 0.629 yuan/W-0.75 yuan/W and the average bidding price was 0.69 yuan/W. The types of CEEC's 100MW photovoltaic module are P-type double-sided double-glass 182 size 545W and above, the bidding price was 0.635 yuan/W-0.734 yuan/W, and the average bidding price was 0.692 yuan/W. It should be noted that the bidding price of this section includes the freight price of 1000KM. As the P-type production capacity is gradually being closed, many companies have not participated in the quotation of the P-type bidding section.
Chart: China P-type module bidding price from January to September 2024, unit: Yuan/W
The average bidding price of N-type modules dropped to 0.692 yuan/W
The average bidding price of N-type modules fell to 0.692 yuan/W in September, a month-on-month decrease of 8.9% (the average price in August was 0.759 yuan/W). The reason for this is that the prices in the upstream and auxiliary material links continue to drop, leaving some room for module price reductions. On the other hand, terminal demand is not good and competition is fierce, and module companies hope to grab more orders at low prices.
In September, the TOPCon modules bids from Huaneng Group (13.5GW), Huadian Group (15.5GW), SPIC (11.4GW), and CEEC(14GW) announced the opening price. The bidding prices were 0.622 yuan/W-0.815 yuan/W, and the average bidding price was 0.696 yuan/W. It is important to noted that in SPIC's tender, the quotations of some companies may not have market reference. Some bidding companies would set a hidden discount of 3 to 6 cents/W, but the actual price would not be announced at the time of the bid opening. Moreover, the opening bid price for centralized procurement is also not the final delivery price. When supplying, the price needs to be adjusted based on the amount quoted by the third-party platform. Thus the actual supply price may be lower.
In addition, N-Type and P-Type component prices have inverted. In CEEC's 14GW TOPCon module tender, the average bidding price of the four TOPCon module bids was 0.685 yuan/W, which was lower than the average bid opening price of P-type modules in the same period of 0.69 yuan/W. Some companies quoted P-type modules. It was 2 cents/W higher than that of N-type modules, and the bidding price of N-type modules was significantly lower than that of P-type modules.
Chart: Domestic N-type TOPCon module bidding price trend from August to September 2024, unit: Yuan/W
The bidding price of HJT components fell below 0.8 yuan/W
In September, the bidding price of HJT modules dropped to 0.79 yuan/W, down 5.1% from July (the average price in July was 0.833 yuan/W). In September, Huaneng Group's 500MW and CEEC's 2GW HJT photovoltaic module bids were opened. Currently, there are few companies participating in the HJT tender. Looking at the bidding opening, 10 companies participated in each bid section. At the beginning of the month, the bidding price of Huaneng Group's 500MW HJT photovoltaic modules was 0.76 yuan/W-0.87 yuan/W, and the average bidding price was 0.811 yuan/W. In the middle and late months of the month, the bidding price of China Energy Construction's 2GW HJT photovoltaic modules was 0.678 yuan/W. W-0.825 yuan/W, and the average bidding price was 0.78 yuan/W, showing a downward trend.
In addition, Huaneng Group’s 1GW BC module bid has been opened, with a total of 5 companies participating, namely Longi, Aiko, Tongwei, Huayao and Xi’an Solar Energy. The bidding prices ranged from 0.7x yuan/W to 0.9x yuan/W. Two module companies that mainly promoted BC technology bid at 0.8x yuan/W, and two others quoted 0.9x yuan/W. The lowest price was 0.7x yuan/W. Quotations from various companies vary greatly without consensus on the price yet.
Chart: China N-type HJT module bidding price from January to September 2024, unit: Yuan/W
