Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 37/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 35/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 40/KG.
Market Activity：This week, polysilicon transaction volumes increased slightly compared to last week, with small-scale orders dominating. Downstream ingot manufacturers remain facing losses, thus primarily purchasing lower-priced mixed-grade polysilicon. High-priced polysilicon continues to face diminishing acceptance. Overall, polysilicon trading activities remain sluggish, as substantial production capacity and high inventory levels exert pressure. Downstream sentiment toward polysilicon prices is predominantly bearish.
Supply Dynamics: Leading manufacturers are maintaining their rotational production strategy for the next month, scaling down production in southwestern bases due to the dry season, while ramping up polysilicon production in Inner Mongolia’s production lines. Additionally, manufacturers ranked 3rd to 5th in capacity are reducing their operating rates, with many lowering utilization to below 50% to stabilize prices through production cuts.
Price Trends: Domestic polysilicon prices remained stable this week, while prices outside China declined. With the Guangzhou Futures Exchange recently releasing a consultation notice on polysilicon futures trading, effective inventory reduction might occur once futures launch, provided production aligns with supply-demand dynamics during Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.03/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.40/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.14/Pc.
Inventory Dynamics: Rapid production adjustments in the wafer segment during Q3 have led to shifts in wafer inventory fluctuations. The share of 210R series wafers has risen significantly, while demand from downstream cell manufacturers for this specification has temporarily decreased, resulting in price declines for 210R this week. In contrast, demand for 18X-sized wafers is recovering, supporting prices and quickly depleting its inventory. However, 18X wafers are still expected to face challenges in inventory buildup.
Price Trends: Prices for N-type 210 and 210R wafers declined this week, while other specifications remained stable.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.270/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.265/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: Cell inventory remains relatively low, with production closely aligned to downstream module demand, providing temporary price support. However, if demand weakens domestically and overseas after the Lunar New Year, further production cuts in the cell segment are still likely to occur.
Price Trends: Following price reductions in upstream N-type G12R wafers, production costs eased slightly. In addition, without significant demand growth, N-type G12R cell prices fell to RMB 0.265/W this week. Prices for other specifications held steady.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.
Supply and Demand：Module production in December is relatively well-supported, because leading manufacturers has gained higher order volumes. However, a sharper downturn in the market demand is anticipated during January and February. At that time, some manufacturers potentially extend holiday breaks. On the supply side, utility-scale solar projects are entering a pause phase, while distributed solar projects face regulatory challenges.
Price Trends: Prices for all types of modules remained stable this week.
Bifacial M10-TOPCon: Leading manufacturers’ quoted prices ranged between RMB 0.65-0.70/W.
Bifacial G12-HJT: Mainstream manufacturers' quoted prices clustered between RMB 0.65-0.80/W.
