Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 37/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 35/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 40/KG.
Market Activity:
Polysilicon transaction prices begin to show signs of fluctuations. As the year-end approaches, wafer manufacturers are likely to start a new round of negotiations and orders, though most are still in the discussion phase. Some manufacturers, facing cash flow and inventory pressures, are offering price concessions to facilitate sales. Currently, the trading price for mixed-grade polysilicon shows a slight downward shift.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
With the dry season in southwestern regions and the heating demand surge in northern areas, energy production costs are expected to rise. Combined with inventory pressure across the supply chain, manufacturers are adopting production cuts to deplete inventory and stabilize prices. Production schedules for December are expected to be adjusted downward to a range of 90,000-100,000 tons. On the supply side, wafer production remains in a phase of cutbacks and inventory reduction, providing limited support for polysilicon consumption. Starting next month, the supply-demand surplus for polysilicon is expected to improve, driven primarily by supply-side corrections.
Price Trends:
This week, the transaction center for N-type silicon rod saw a downward shift. Future price trends will depend on the extent of production cuts and their impact on inventory clearance. As the year-end and holiday season approach, downstream segments remain in delivery or stockpiling phases, providing some support for demand. If the reductions of polysilicon supply can be significantly advanced during this period, inventory pressures in upstream segments may ease.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.03/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.43/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.18/Pc
Inventory Dynamics:
Currently, wafer inventory levels are in the range of 3.4-3.6 billion pieces, with the rate of inventory depletion slowing. In terms of inventory structure, the 182mm wafer remains dominant. However, its share is gradually decreasing due to robust demand from solar cells segment. Meanwhile, demand for 210mm wafers is also supported, preventing additional inventory pressure from building up.
Price Trends:
During the week, the prices for various types of wafers remained stable. This stability is underpinned by substantial production cuts on the supply side. If downstream demand slows in December, additional supply-side adjustments may be required to maintain a marginal balance between supply and demand in the wafer segment.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.270/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.270/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
On the supply side, considering the costs associated with starting and stopping production lines, as well as financial and personnel pressures, manufacturers are maintaining relatively stable production levels amid the current temporary rebound in solar cell prices. There have been no large-scale production expansion decisions, as the solar cell segment had already cleared out outdated capacities and new entrants earlier in the year. This has provided strong support for the supply-demand balance. On the demand side, strong procurement activity is being driven by the completion phase of centralized PV projects and pre-holiday stockpiling.
Price Trends:
This week, transaction prices for N-type M10 and N-type G12 cells rose again on a week-on-week basis, supported by clear orders and growing demand. Looking ahead to December, while pre-holiday demand provides some support, overall market demand is expected to enter a seasonal lull after the holiday period. Solar cell manufacturers are unlikely to significantly expand production in response to the current price rebound.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
For December, production schedules are supported by the final deliveries of ongoing projects and pre-holiday stockpiling. However, module manufacturers remain cautious about first-quarter demand, with some even planning extended holidays to mitigate risks. On the supply side, centralized PV projects are entering a downtime phase, while distributed PV projects are expected to benefit from policy adjustments in the new year. That said, the off-season for the first quarter may become even more sluggish.
Europe: Module prices in Europe continued to decline in November due to the off-season in installations and year-end inventory clearance by some suppliers. Super-low prices of 5-6 USD cents/W have appeared in the market. However, due to concerns over quality and future maintenance, large-scale transactions remain rare. With the adjustment in export tax rebates, module prices in Europe are expected to rebound in the near future.
India: Both domestic and imported module prices fell month-on-month in November. Starting December 1, adjustments to export tax rebates are expected to lead to a price increase for imported solar cells and modules in India. The roughly 4% rise in costs will likely be negotiated and shared between import-export businesses.
Price Trends:
This week, module prices across various types remained stable:
Bifacial M10-TOPCon: Leading manufacturers are quoting in the range of 0.65-0.70 RMB/W.
Bifacial G12-HJT: Mainstream quotes are concentrated in the range of 0.65-0.80 RMB/W.
