Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transaction Status：At present, contract signing in the polysilicon sector is underway. Leading manufacturers continue to remain their prices, but price increases from other tier manufacturers are too low. Therefore, the polysilicon price has been not yet higher than 40 RMB/kg. Downstream wafer manufacturers show limited acceptance of the price hikes, with only a small number accepting the increases. Most remain cautious and are still observing market trends.
Supply and Demand: Polysilicon supply remains constrained. Several factors, including slower-than-expected maintenance recovery, the approach of the dry season, and the upcoming listing of polysilicon futures, are contributing to supply reductions. However, it remains to be seen whether new capacities coming online in Q4 will affect the pace of supply clearance. On the demand side, wafer manufacturers are also reducing production and inventory, limiting their support higher polysilicon prices.
Price Trends: Polysilicon prices in all types remained flat this week. Leading manufacturers raised prices by 1-3 RMB/kg, while others, pressured by the need to clear their inventory, haven’t increased their prices to be higher than 40 RMB/kg. Both upstream and downstream sectors are in an adjustment phase, making it challenging for mainstream polysilicon prices to rise significantly.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Supply and Demand: The wafer sector is still in a phase of production cuts and inventory reduction. Recent attempts by wafer producers to raise prices have not been successful, and customers show lower willingness to accept higher wafer prices. Looking ahead, both wafer supply and demand remain on a downward trend, and the balance between marginal supply and demand will influence actual transaction prices.
Price Trends: Wafer prices remained stable across all types this week. The strong polysilicon price hikes have provided significant cost support for wafers. Given that the wafer sector is in the process of reducing production and inventory, wafer prices are likely to remain stable. However, whether prices rise depends on the demand from downstream sectors.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.
Supply and Demand: Due to rising inventory, less orders, and continued losses, solar cell manufacturers have further reduced or halted production this month. Meanwhile, downstream module sector is facing with weak demand in the peak season. Therefore, it is difficult for the demand for cells from module sector to increase. Both midstream and downstream players are struggling to clear inventory. However, demand for different types of cells has diverged, with the cell sizes shifting to 210R-sized cells progressing. This has resulted in a short-term increase in the supply share of 210R cells.
Price Trends: Solar cell prices remained stable this week, with the mainstream transaction range for N-type M10 cells at 0.27-0.29 RMB/W. Leading manufacturers are expected to slightly lower their prices towards the lower end of the range. Prices for N-type G12 (R) cells remained stable, with transaction prices centered around 0.28-0.29 RMB/W.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.73/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.74/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.76/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.90/W.
Supply and Demand: In the domestic market, distributed PV installations are being challenged by grid connection issues, with insufficient growth in residential PV. The commercial and industrial sectors are being relied upon to compensate for the slowdown of the installations. Ground-mounted power stations are still awaiting increased shipments.
In overseas markets:
Europe: Prices remain pessimistic. European inventories continue to rise, and the oversupply of PV modules is putting downward pressure on prices. Wholesalers and installers are reducing purchases for modules to avoid another round of devaluation losses, similar to the overstock of PERC modules.
India: The impact of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) has persisted since Q2, leading to a sharp decline in module import demand. However, cell imports have been less affected, and India’s PV import structure may gradually shift towards being dominated by cells, with a weakening demand for modules.
U.S.: With the start of the interest rate cut cycle, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for solar PV projects is expected to improve slightly, but this depends on grid price incentives. While demand for solar installations remains stable, the trend toward localized module production in the U.S. may lead to a decrease in module imports.
Price Trends: Module prices remained stable this week. For bifacial M10-TOPCon modules, prices from leading manufacturers were concentrated in the range of 0.70-0.73 RMB/W, while mid- to lower-tier manufacturers, under pressure to clear inventory, offered lower prices in the 0.65-0.70 RMB/W range. Mainstream prices for bifacial G12-HJT modules were concentrated in the 0.75-0.85 RMB/W range, with some second-tier manufacturers quoting below the lower end of this range. Prices for BC glass-glass modules remained stable. Overall, manufacturers are facing competition pressures in the context of limited growth in installations demand.
