Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transaction Activity: This week, transaction sentiment was relatively subdued. Some polysilicon manufacturers made attempts to raise prices, with increases reaching within the range of 0 to 1 RMB. However, downstream ingot producers, struggling with their own pricing issues, showed limited acceptance of these price hikes, resulting in lower transaction volumes in the polysilicon sector. Therefore, it can be seen that there was difficulty in aligning price expectations between upstream and downstream parties.
Production Schedule: This month, companies further reduced their production schedules to avoid deeper losses. If cash flow pressures intensify, further reductions or halts in production still likely to happen, reinforcing the trend of “the strong getting stronger” in the polysilicon sector. This month’s production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons, with a slight month-on-month reduction.
Inventory Dynamics: Polysilicon inventories remain stable, with weekly levels still hovering between 200,000-220,000 tons. Thanks to active production cuts by leading manufacturers and increased shipments downstream, granular silicon inventories are trending downward.
However, there is still a supply-demand gap for polysilicon this month, and the inventory levels at the end of the month may face upward pressure.
Price Trend: Prices remained stable this week, with polysilicon manufacturers showing strong intentions to push for price increases. However, high inventory levels and excess capacity continue to exert significant pressure on price hikes. In the short term, the primary strategies for the polysilicon segment are expected to be reducing production loads and forcing smaller companies out of the market to stabilize the whole inventories. Successful price adjustments in the wafer sector could be the key to realizing price increases for polysilicon.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Production Plans: This month, wafer production has been down to the range of 49-50 GW, and is expected to fall at the lower end of this range. Major specialized leaders are contributing significantly to the production reduction, and other specialized manufacturers are also slowing down their production to varying degrees. There is a growing consensus among wafer manufacturers to cut production in order to stabilize prices. Additionally, P-type wafers are being further cleared out, with N-type wafers now accounting for nearly 90% of monthly production. Supply and Demand Dynamics: Amid continued losses, leading wafer manufacturers are increasingly aligning their production decisions and are determined to cut their production and inventory. This month, the supply-demand gap for wafers has shown its first negative value of the year. On the demand side, the cell segment is experiencing reduced demand due to uncertainty in module orders. This has led to a decrease in demand for cells. Meanwhile, with pressure on cell prices, cell companies are generally not very receptive to wafer price increases. Therefore, cell companies are focusing on inventory digestion to avoid cost increases. Therefore, whether the consensus among manufacturers on production cuts can cover the time needed for inventory reduction will be crucial for the short-term success of the price hikes.
Price Trend: This week, wafer prices remain stable, with both upstream and downstream sectors engaged in a price tug-of-war. Some wafer manufacturers insist on selling at the increased prices, while cell manufacturers are concerned that accepting high prices may further widen their losses. Looking ahead, wafer prices are expected to continue consolidating with some volatility.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: The cell segment is facing a dual pressure situation. This month, supply has seen a slight increase due to production boosts by certain specialized leaders, leading to a slight surplus of N-type cells. On the demand side, module manufacturers are generally facing insufficient orders, thus limiting support for cells. Additionally, intense competition among module manufacturers continues, with some leading ones reducing their factory prices this week. The dilemma for the cell segment lies in the continued upstream losses, leading to stronger intention among cell manufacturers to increase prices. However, module manufacturers, under intense competition pressure, find it difficult to accept rising costs. In addition, specialized cell manufacturers have weaker bargaining power with downstream customers, making it challenging to pass on cost pressures effectively.
Price Trend: This week, cell prices remain stable. Given the uncertain downstream orders and the strong pressure from upstream raising prices, some manufacturers may further reduce or halt production due to worsening profit conditions. In the short term, it is challenging for cell manufacturers to offset cost pressures through price increases.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.73/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.74/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.76/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.90/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: In September, module production is forecasted to be in the range of 46-47 GW. If demand remains stable throughout the month, module production will be at the upper end of this range. Currently, except for a few manufacturers experiencing positive demand and increasing production by mid-to-low double digits, most are facing insufficient orders and have generally reduced overall production. Discontinuous orders are becoming a new trend in this sector. More importantly, the demand for localize production to cover local needs continues to impact domestic productions.
Price Trend: This week, prices for all types of modules remain stable. However, some leading manufacturers have reduced their prices (by approximately 0.01-0.03 RMB/W) and have started lowering their prices for more shipment. Due to weak demand in the distributed PV segment, some major distributed PV manufacturers' spot prices are trending towards being lower 0.70 RMB/W.
PV Glass:
Prices: The mainstream transaction price for 2.0mm coating PV glass is 13.00 yuan/m², and for 3.2mm coating PV glass, it’s 22.00 yuan/m².
Supply and Demand Dynamics: There has been an increase in actions such as maintenance and kiln closures by solar PV glass manufacturers, leading to a reduction in solar glass capacity. Therefore, monthly supply of solar glass will continue to decline. On the demand side, with ongoing intense competition among downstream module manufacturers, many are focusing on digesting their own inventory, making it difficult for monthly module production to cover the monthly supply of solar glass. Therefore, the inventory of solar glass is increasing, which have reached a new high for the year.
Price Trend: Solar PV glass prices have been further reduced due to the combined effects of weak supply-demand relationships and rising inventory levels. The transaction price for 2.0 mm coated PV glass has decreased by 3.70% to 13.0yuan/m²， while the price for 3.2 mm coated photovoltaic glass has dropped by 2.22% to 22.00 yuan/m².
