Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transaction: This week saw relatively sluggish trading sentiment. Some polysilicon manufacturers have slightly raised prices, with the rise ranging from 0 yuan to 1 yuan. However, downstream ingot producers, facing challenges in raising prices, are less receptive to higher-priced polysilicon orders. Therefore, the transaction volumes in the polysilicon sector are lower. It has been difficult for upstream and downstream producers to agree on transaction prices.
Production Plans for This Month: Polysilicon further reduced their productions to prevent larger losses. With increasing cash flow pressure, there may be further production cuts or even production suspension in the polysilicon sector. Stronger producers continue to dominate the market, and the monthly production is around 130,000 tons, with a slight decline from the previous month.
Inventory Dynamics: Polysilicon inventory remains stable, with weekly levels at 200,000 to 220,000 tons. Granular silicon inventory is declining due to active production reduction by leading manufacturers and downstream purchases. There is still a supply-demand gap for polysilicon this month, and inventory may face upward pressure by the end of the month.
Price Trend: Prices remained stable this week. Although polysilicon manufacturers are eager to raise prices, high inventory and surplus capacity continue to exert downward pressure. In the short term, reducing production loads and pushing small and medium manufacturers out of the market remains the main strategy for stabilizing inventory in the polysilicon sector. The success of price increases for polysilicon may depend on whether wafers prices can successfully increase.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Production: This month’s production plan has been reduced to the 49-50 GW range, likely reaching at the lower end. Leading specialized manufacturers contributed significantly to the production reduction, with other manufacturers also slowing production. Consensus among wafer manufacturers to reduce production and support price increases has strengthened. Additionally, P-type wafers are being phased out, and N-type wafers now account for nearly 90% of monthly production.
Supply-Demand Dynamics: Due to significant losses, leading wafer manufacturers are increasingly synchronized in their decisions to cut production and reduce wafer inventory. For the first time this year, the supply-demand gap for wafers has turned negative. However, demand is also declining as the solar module orders are still unclear, and the price pressure on cells has made cell producers less willing to accept higher wafer prices. Currently, cell producers are still focusing on consuming their wafer inventory. Thus, the time needed for inventory clearance may determine the success of price hikes.
Price Trend: Wafer prices remained stable this week, with price negotiations between upstream and downstream participants intensifying. Some wafer manufacturers are sticking to higher prices, while cell manufacturers fear increased losses if they accept higher wafer prices. Looking ahead, wafer prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.
Supply-Demand Dynamics: The cell segment is facing dual pressures. On the supply side, the cell production is slightly increasing due to capacity expansions by a leading specialized manufacturer, leading to a slight oversupply of N-type cells. On the demand side, module manufacturers are struggling with insufficient orders, reducing the support for cell demand. Furthermore, intense competition among module manufacturers has led to some of leading module producers lowering prices. The challenge for the cell segment lies in the upstream’s growing desire to raise prices due to sustained losses, while the module side is facing with intense competition and unable to absorb higher costs. Specialized cell manufacturers have limited bargaining power and cannot easily pass on the cost pressure downstream.
Price Trend: Cell prices remained stable this week. With unstable downstream orders and upstream price pressures, some cell manufacturers may reduce or halt production due to worsening profitability. In the short term, it will be difficult to pass on the cost pressure through price increases.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.73/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.74/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.76/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.90/W.
Supply Dynamics: The production plan for modules in September is in the 46-47 GW range, with the upper end expected if demand remains stable. Some manufacturers with improved demand saw mid to low double-digit increases in their production, while others reduced module production due to insufficient orders. The discontinuity of orders is becoming a new trend, and local production for local demand in overseas markets continues to impact domestic production plans.
Price Trend: Module prices hold steady this week. Some leading manufacturers reduced prices by 0.01-0.03 yuan/W to boost shipment. Due to weak demand in the distributed PV sector, the spot price of some large distributed PV manufacturers may fall below 0.70 yuan/W.
PV Glass
The mainstream transaction price for 2.0mm coating PV glass is 13.00 yuan/m², and for 3.2mm coating PV glass, it’s 22.00 yuan/m².
Supply-Demand Dynamics: More PV glass manufacturers are undergoing cold repairs or shutting down production lines, leading to reduced production capacity. On the demand side, module manufacturers are still focused on clearing their inventories, and their production plans are unable to match PV glass supply, pushing PV glass inventories to new highs this year.
Price Trend: PV glass prices are under dual pressure from weak supply-demand dynamics and rising inventories, leading to further price reductions. The transaction price for 2.0mm coating PV glass fell by 3.70% to 13.00 yuan/m², and for 3.2mm coating PV glass, it decreased by 2.22% to 22.00 yuan/m².
