Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transaction status: Monthly contracts are mostly completed, primarily signed by major polysilicon manufacturers. The downstream ingot segment continues to adopt a purchase-as-needed strategy due to their ongoing losses, resulting in low transaction volumes for polysilicon.
Inventory dynamics: As of this week, reduced production by leading manufacturers and increasing procurement have led to a slight decrease in polysilicon inventory levels, which now hovers around 200,000 to 220,000 tons. The polysilicon inventory pressure is expected to ease in the short term.
Price trend: Prices remain stable this week. The supply reduction of polysilicon is steadily progressing, while demand, influenced by various factors, may be still weak. Only some polysilicon manufacturers with orders are restocking. However, continuous losses and price declines continue to put greater pressure on the operating rate of the wafer segment. Therefore, in the short term, polysilicon prices are expected to maintain consolidation.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Supply and demand Dynamics: On the supply side, current inventory depletion is challenging, making the production adjustments of major specialized manufacturers crucial at this stage. On the demand side, the cell segment is in a phase of stagnation and reorganization, with overall purchasing power remaining weak. Integrated cell manufacturers have significantly reduced cell production, and the original outsourcing demand for wafers is fatigued now.
Price trend: Driven by high productions from major and specialized manufacturers, the oversupply of G10L wafer has become more serious, leading to a reduction in its mainstream transaction price to 1.08 RMB/piece this week. The overall inventory pressure on G12 (N- and P-type) wafers has increased, posing downward pressure on prices, with the mainstream prices adjusted to 1.50 RMB/piece (N-type) and 1.65 RMB/piece (P-type) this week. As demand weakens in the cell segment, the dynamic adjustment of wafer production will significantly impact wafer price trends. In conclusion, wafer prices are expected to continue to maintain at the bottom level.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.
Supply and demand Dynamics: On the supply side, integrated manufacturers are altering their cell capacity strategies, with some major manufacturers beginning to shut down parts of their cell production facilities to prevent the negative operating leverage from integrated operations from affecting their module profits. For new players, many are facing choices of shutdowns due to profit losses, which may pose negative impact on their profits of their existing businesses. However, restructuring does not equate to the disappearance of existing capacity. Meanwhile, the module segment is under price pressure, and thus module producers show strong willingness to pass on cost pressures to the upstream segments.
Price trend: Under the dual pressure of upstream price reductions and downstream asking for more profits, the mainstream transaction price for N-type M10 and G12R cells has declined, with N-type M10 prices falling below 0.28 RMB/W to 0.275 RMB/W and N-type G12R prices dropping to 0.28 RMB/W this week. Looking ahead, whether the demand in Q3 and Q4 can increase as expected will have a significant impact on cell prices.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.73/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.74/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.76/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.90/W.
Supply and demand Dynamics: Demand for modules in September and October is expected to see a slight month-on-month increase, with signs of improvement in orders. Additionally, there are indications that overseas capacity deployment by module manufacturers will be faster, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Indonesia. The accelerated deployment can help producers mitigate the impact of tariffs in certain countries.
Price trend: Module prices remained stable across all types this week, but there is still some pressure on shipments in the future due to the intense competition on prices.
