Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transactions: As of early this month, most manufacturers have finalized their order signings. The tug-of-war over future price expectations between upstream and downstream players has eased, particularly following frequent inquiries from futures traders, which have raised the potential for increased polysilicon demand. This week, a small number of higher-priced orders were driven by futures and trading companies. However, prices for most long-term orders have remained stable, with no significant month-on-month changes.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: This month, overall polysilicon production is expected to decline to around 60GW, primarily due to substantial production cuts by some of the TOP6 manufacturers. With cash flow becoming increasingly tight, most companies are prioritizing the shutdown of high-cost, outdated capacity while maintaining only low-cost, newer capacity. The supply-demand relationship continues to improve, with the polysilicon supply-demand gap narrowing to approximately 7GW. If production continues to decrease through September and October, coupled with the listing of polysilicon futures and the concerted effort of futures and trading companies to consume inventory, polysilicon prices may reach a turning point by mid-Q4. However, the key to price stabilization remains the elimination of excess capacity.
Price Trend: Prices have remained stable this week, with a small number of premium orders failing to lift mainstream prices. Ingot producers, already facing severe losses, are finding it difficult to absorb additional price pressure from polysilicon manufacturers.
Wafer
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.70/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: In August, wafer production trends continued to diverge, with leading manufacturers further increasing their production schedules month-on-month. In contrast, mid- to lower-tier manufacturers are experiencing more frequent production cuts and shutdowns due to ongoing losses and cash flow challenges. Additionally, the concentration of leading specialized manufacturers has increased for the first time this year, while integrated manufacturers are beginning to shift their output strategies. In a market where wafer prices are lower than production costs across the entire industry chain, the negative impact of wafer segment losses continues to erode the operating profits of integrated module manufacturers. This month, the supply-demand gap between the wafer and cell segments remains relatively narrow, providing strong support for wafer prices. However, given the existing wafer inventory of approximately 38GW, supply surpluses are evident across all specifications. Should downstream cell prices or demand decline, wafer prices may adjust accordingly.
Cell
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W.
Production and Inventory: In August, cell production saw a slight month-on-month reduction. Faced with insufficient demand, cell manufacturers have simultaneously cut their production schedules. Upon closer examination, mid- to lower-tier manufacturers significantly accelerated their clearance rates in August. Notably, new entrants from other industries, who had previously expanded aggressively, announced substantial losses and subsequently declared shutdowns and exits.
Price Trend: This week, prices for various cell specifications remained stable. External procurement orders from integrated manufacturers showed a declining trend compared to last month, while order demand concentration increased. Specialized cell manufacturers are under short-term bargaining pressure, with intense competition to secure orders through price cuts persisting. However, OEM orders from overseas markets remain robust.
Module
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.73/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.74/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.76/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.90/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: In August, based on the order status of module manufacturers, most are maintaining cautious production plans to avoid inventory buildup and potential impairment losses, except for one leading manufacturer whose production was driven by high order volumes within the month. From a demand perspective, overseas markets are progressing steadily. In Europe, holiday-related factors have temporarily limited demand, while markets in the Middle East and Africa continue to advance steadily. Domestically, distributed PV demand is awaiting recovery, and ground-mounted power station installations are expected to commence at the end of Q3. Overall, current order activity remains sluggish.
Price Trend: This week, prices for all types of modules remained stable. However, internal competition is gradually shifting from rivalries among manufacturers using the same technology to competition between different technological platforms. To capture market share, some manufacturers may aggressively adopt price-cutting strategies, further complicating the competitive pricing landscape in the module market.
