Polysilicon：
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transactions: This week, the polysilicon market was primarily driven by small orders. With tight cash flow across various segments, downstream producers are hesitant to make large purchases and continue to buy as needed.
Supply Dynamics: Leading manufacturers are pushing ahead with production cuts and may further reduce their production. However, the top manufacturer is maintaining high production levels, aiming to capture more market share from lower tier competitors amid extreme prices. This week, some large new entrants in the chemical sector have halted production and reduced salaries due to sustained cash flow pressure, highlighting the increasing extrusion effect in the polysilicon segment.
Demand Dynamics: The wafer segment continues to suffer losses, with deteriorating cash flow liquidity being a major trend. In the short term, support for polysilicon demand from ingot producers remains minimal.
Price Trend: Major manufacturers are determined to hold prices, with the mainstream n-type price stuck at 38 yuan/kg. However, the reduced demand from the module segment is gradually impacting the polysilicon market. If some manufacturers continue to expand capacity against the trend in Q3, leading to a more serious supply-demand imbalance, polysilicon prices may decline.
Wafer:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.75/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.45/Pc.
Production and Inventory: As of mid-month, wafer inventory remains above 4 billion pieces. Leading manufacturers still hold a large proportion of this inventory. Despite attempts to raise the price of 183N wafers, market acceptance has been poor. Battery manufacturers already suffering losses find it difficult to accept the short-term supply-demand imbalance premium. Additionally, the 210R wafer faces a temporary oversupply, causing price pressure and some negative fluctuations.
Price Trend: In the short term, certain wafer sizes have experienced price fluctuations due to supply and demand mismatches, while other wafer prices remain in a low-level consolidation phase.
Cell:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.300/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.320/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.35/W.
Production and Inventory: Production in the cell segment remains sluggish, with monthly inventory levels around 1 to 1.5 months.
Price Trend: The slowdown in module orders has reduced support for cells. Currently, cell manufacturers are cutting production to maintain cash flow, with minimal losses being the best outcome for most specialized manufacturers at this stage. The 210RN cell is again under pressure due to an oversupply of upstream wafers and is waiting for an increase in downstream 210R orders for support. Meanwhile, cell capacity in the Middle East is steadily coming online. As module capacity in the Middle East accelerates, the region's solar cell capacity may command a premium. In the context of a diverse global PV industrial chain, the advanced technological premium of overseas TOPCon cell capacity is more evident.
Module:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.
Production and Inventory: Module production in July continues to be sluggish, with output ranging from 44 to 46 GW and inventory levels at risk of fluctuation.
Demand:
Overseas: The European market is on summer vacation, significantly affecting shipment volumes. According to European quotation platforms, the supply for high-efficiency modules is again surplus, leading to slight price adjustments and a slowdown in some distributors’ stockpiling efforts. The pre-pull effect before tariffs take effect in various countries is weakening, adding more uncertainty to PV module exports in the second half of the year.
Domestic: Ground-mounted power station shipments continue to advance, while distributed PV installations are waiting for positive news. This week's prices remain stable, with intense competition continuing in actual transactions. Major manufacturers are holding steady at 0.78-0.80 yuan/W, with some offering 0.76 yuan/W.
