Polysilicon：
Polysilicon prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 60/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 58/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 71/KG.
In the realm of trading activities, fresh orders have been slow to pick up post the holiday season, with only a handful of manufacturers securing substantial contracts. Anticipation is high that the upcoming week will mark the peak period for new order signings. Currently, negotiations are underway in both the upstream and downstream sectors, ironing out the specifics of orders slated for the next month.
On the supply front, polysilicon manufacturers maintained stable production levels during the Spring Festival holiday, ensuring minimal fluctuations in the overall polysilicon supply. Thanks to robust utilization rates among crystal-pulling manufacturers, the inventory of polysilicon remains at a low level.
Switching gears to demand, downstream crystal-pulling manufacturers are operating at high rates, generating a robust demand for polysilicon. However, there's a surplus in wafer inventory, coupled with low wafer prices, leading to a weakened momentum for crystal-pulling manufacturers in the upstream sector. Consequently, some crystal-pulling manufacturers are opting to purchase lower-quality polysilicon to alleviate cost pressures.
Despite this, in the short term, the market still exhibits a demand for polysilicon, and prominent polysilicon manufacturers are likely to increase prices in the coming month.
Wafer:
The prices of wafer have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.05/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 2.00/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 3.10/Pc.
On the supply side, crystal-pulling manufacturers are holding firm to their production schedules set at the beginning of February, maintaining consistently high operation rates. Additionally, some crystal-pulling manufacturers are gearing up to increase their operation rates post the holiday season. However, the current challenge lies in the wafer inventory, hovering around 2.4-2.6 billion pieces. If operation rates in the wafer sector remain unchanged, the inventory might swell to over 3 billion pieces.
Turning to the demand side, most cell manufacturers are still on hiatus, with only a portion of production lines in operation pre-holiday. Consequently, the cell sectors cannot absorb the surplus wafer inventory, placing significant pressure on wafer manufacturers, particularly those dealing with N-type wafers. The prevailing wafer prices are deemed too low for manufacturers, forcing them to uphold high operation rates and produce lower-quality polysilicon to cut costs. However, these heightened operation rates also contribute to an increase in inventory, adding to the pressure faced by manufacturers.
In conclusion, wafer prices are likely to experience a slight decline due to low demand and the challenge of managing high inventory levels.
Cell:
Cell prices have been stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.380/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.380/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.
On the supply front, the resurgence of production among cell manufacturers post the Spring Festival is sluggish, and the anticipated peak in the resumption of work isn't expected until the month's end. Some cell manufacturers are factoring in the depreciation of assets as they kickstart P-type cell production, a move that will reflect in their earnings.
Turning to the demand side, there hasn't been a substantial uptick in customer demand. While a few integrated manufacturers with abundant orders are significantly ramping up production, many other cell manufacturers are still on hiatus. In the short term, the procurement of cells isn't expected to experience a significant increase. The demand and supply dynamics for high-efficient N-type cells are strained, prompting leading N-type cell manufacturers to contemplate price hikes. However, the primary integrated customers are not necessarily in need of high-quality cells, making it challenging for cell manufacturers to boost the production of high-efficient N-type cells. Conversely, changes are expected on the cost side. There's a likelihood of a decline in N-type wafer prices, potentially leading to a slight increase in profits within the cell sector.
Module:
Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.93/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.95/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.94/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.97/W.
On the supply front, module manufacturers are maintaining a low production schedule, with only leading players fulfilling overseas orders and resuming operations. Meanwhile, a significant number of second and third-tier manufacturers are still on holiday, and overall, there won't be a notable increase in production in the short term.
Looking at the demand side, the anticipated peak in demand hasn't materialized yet. In the overseas market, ALMM has been postponed, ensuring that emerging markets will continue to exhibit considerable demand in the first half of 2024. In Europe, there's a slight uptick in the annual installation plan, contributing to demand for modules in the second quarter. It's noteworthy that module production scheduling is expected to witness significant improvement in March, reaching 45-50GW.
Additionally, we anticipate that module manufacturers will accumulate a substantial amount of raw materials when prices for main and auxiliary materials are low. This strategic approach is poised to enhance their profitability in the long run.
