Polysilicon：
Polysilicon prices have been stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 57/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 55/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.
Based on market transactions, some enterprises still have orders, but the overall turnover volume is sluggish. With the approaching Spring Festival, crystal pulling manufacturers are making more frequent inquiries as they aim to build up their inventory. Concurrently, certain enterprises are strategizing for February orders. The prices of N-type and P-type polysilicon are expected to further diverge, with crystal pulling manufacturers ramping up the production ratio of N-type products at a faster pace. However, it's worth noting that only leading manufacturers can consistently produce high-quality N-type polysilicon.
In the short term, the supply and demand dynamics for N-type polysilicon remain balanced, and manufacturers possess ample momentum to sustain their prices. The tax-inclusive price of dense polysilicon is held steady at 55 yuan/KG, closely aligning with the cost production line of second-tier manufacturers. This market price lends support to price stability, ensuring that polysilicon prices remain consistent.
Towards the end of January, the price gap between N-type and P-type is expected to widen. On one hand, polysilicon output remains robust, and downstream crystal pulling manufacturers will experience heightened demand for N-type polysilicon to secure a reliable supply of raw materials. Consequently, the supply and demand dynamics for N-type polysilicon will intensify. As a result, by the end of January, N-type polysilicon prices are projected to rise during negotiations for new orders.
Wafer:
The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.95/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 2.05/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 3.15/Pc.
P-type Wafer: The availability of P-type wafers is on a downward trend, and they've now become self-supplied by leading integrated manufacturers who primarily utilize their existing P-type inventory. In the short term, P-type wafer stability is assured with support from their producers. Anticipated is a rebound in P-type wafer prices post the Spring Festival holiday, driven by a positive shift in demand during the order delivery period. Currently, some manufacturers are adjusting their procurement plans in anticipation of rising P-type wafer prices. Notably, P-type prices showed a slight rebound last week, indicating a potential trend post the holiday season.
N-type Wafer: The overall demand for N-type wafers is diminishing, with most orders scheduled for delivery after the second quarter. Consequently, current N-type wafer output surpasses actual market demand, leading to a rapid increase in inventory in late January. As the off-season approaches in February, certain manufacturers may scale back production schedules to stabilize prices and balance the supply and demand for N-type products. In February, there is a significant expected contraction in overall N-type wafer demand. Inappropriately timed production schedules by crystal manufacturers may exacerbate wafer inventory issues. Consequently, wafer prices are projected to continue declining, while the trajectory of P-type wafer prices hinges on the possibility of large-scale orders in Q1.
Cell:
Cell prices have diverged this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.375/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.380/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.
P-type Cells: The output of P-type cells witnessed a staggering 50% month-on-month decline, extending this downward trend for two consecutive months. Currently, the production capacity for P-type cells is essentially shut down, resulting in a stagnation of supply and demand that contributes to a stable price. Recently, some manufacturers predicted an upcoming increase in P-type cell prices following the delivery of orders. Consequently, they've adjusted their purchasing strategies, boosting demand. This slight uptick in demand has led to a modest recovery in P-type prices, with the real turning point expected in later Q1. February is anticipated to experience the lowest demand for P-type cells, prompting manufacturers to exercise patience while waiting for demand recovery to sell P-type cells at higher prices. However, the less efficient N-type cells can serve as a substantial substitute for P-type cells. Therefore, the growth rate of P-type cell prices will be influenced by the prices of N-type cells with comparable efficiency.
N-type Cells: Despite a stable expansion of production capacity, the actual demand for N-type cells has not shown significant growth. Consequently, some manufacturers are deferring reaching full capacity until the crucial delivery period in H2 of 2024 to avoid losses from intense price competition. Furthermore, the efficiency and output gap of N-type cells between leading manufacturers, second and third-tier manufacturers, and new entrants has widened. Leading manufacturers now produce nearly 70% of their total cell output, and their adoption of efficiency-improving technologies outpaces other manufacturers. With the holiday season approaching, monthly declines in module production schedules are evident. Additionally, as large-scale demand for N-type cells has not materialized, N-type inventory is expected to continue accumulating. As module prices decline once again, N-type cell prices will face pressure and potentially reach the bottom line. Apart from integrated manufacturers with existing orders, others are grappling with increased pressure on N-type cell prices.
Module:
Module prices have declined throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.93/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.95/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.94/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.97/W.
On the supply side, module production schedules experienced a 15% decline in January compared to the previous month, and as we approach February and the Spring Festival, further decreases are anticipated. Despite an overall drop in production schedules across enterprises, disparities persist. There's still a noticeable difference in order volumes between leading manufacturers and those in the second and third tiers. Additionally, orders for high-efficiency N-type modules from leading manufacturers remain strong.
On the demand side, bidding prices in tender projects by Power China and CNNC have hit a record low, causing declines in both N-type and P-type module prices. Module manufacturers are intensifying their efforts to secure orders, with expectations that some may streamline their production capacities. This round of price competition is likely to result in a more concentrated market share. Consequently, during the offseason, some manufacturers may lower their prices to facilitate increased shipments, contributing to a decline in prices this week. As the market enters its offseason in February, module prices are expected to linger at the bottom level if market demand continues to contract.
