The markets in China and the rest of the world showed mixed developments this week. The Chinese market was gradually leaving the shadow of the outbreak behind. The market prices were once again determined mostly by supply and demand. As for the rest of the regional markets, the impact of the outbreak started to show as the outbreak spread. The installations in each region were affected to varying degrees. Judging from the changes in the global market, the Chinese market demand will continue until the end of 2020, on account of the outbreak subsiding and the support from the government. In the non-Chinese markets, however, the impact of the pandemic is expanding as the coronavirus outbreak escalates. The solar power industry is not completely shut down. Some of the projects may not be completed within this year.
Polysilicon
This week, the price of polysilicon has remained unchanged. The newly added supply capacity has not fully emerged. The existing supply has not been operational in all respects, either. The demand from the downstream was hampered by the relatively weak demand, which failed to drive up the prices from the upstream. As a result, the prices continued to remain stable. There were limited changes in overseas polysilicon. The prices changed as the exchange rate fluctuated.
In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of mono-grade polysilicon remains unchanged at RMB 72~ 75/KG at the moment. The price range of polysilicon remains unchanged at RMB 50~ 55/KG. The overseas price is lowered to US$8.68~ 9.19/KG. The average price is lowered to US$8.88 /KG. The global average price is lowered to US$8.73 /KG.
Wafers
The price of wafers began to show signs of crumbling this week. The mono-Si market was heating up steadily. The gap between the demand and supply was returning to the state before the pandemic. The multi-Si products were the first to drop prices, mainly because the overseas markets were expected to enter a state of emergency due to the outbreak. This will cause a short-term freeze in demand. Multi-Si wafer manufacturers have begun adjusting their strategy due to the new competitive landscape of the market.
In the overseas market, the range of the multi-Si wafer price revision is US$0.188~ 0.190/Pc at the moment. The price of black silicon products is lowered to US$0.245 /Pc. The range of the 156.75 mm mono-Si wafer price revision is US$0.370~ 0.400/Pc. The range of the large size wafer (158.75 mm) price revision is US$0.420~ 0.430/Pc. The price range of the other large size products remains unchanged at US$0.423~ 0.530/Pc.
In the Chinese domestic market, the range of the multi-Si wafer price revision is RMB 1.46~ 1.53/Pc. The price of black silicon products remains unchanged at RMB 1.94 /Pc. The price range of the cast-mono wafer remains unchanged at RMB 2.60~ 2.65/Pc. The price range of the 156.75 mm mono-Si wafer remains unchanged at RMB 2.99~ 3.07/Pc. The price range of the large size mono-Si wafer (158.75 mm) remains unchanged at RMB 3.20~ 3.31/Pc. The price range of the 166.75 mm wafer remains unchanged at RMB 3.35~ 3.47/Pc.
PV Cells
This week, the cell market was under pressure to reduce prices. Buyer stockpiling in the face of pandemic and the weak demand from the downstream were part of the source of pressure. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, some of the non-Chinese markets were entering a state of emergency, which made it even harder to determine the downstream demand. Even if the Chinese domestic market was heating up, it would take 2~3 weeks to drive up the prices. Although the multi-Si products had few changes in terms of the prices, they were still affected by the price pressure from the mono-Si market.
In the overseas market, the price range of the general multi-Si cell remains unchanged at US$0.077~ 0.085/W at the moment. The price range of the general mono-Si cell remains unchanged at US$0.101~ 0.107/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell price revision is US$0.114~ 0.119/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.7%) price revision is USS$0.120~ 0.170USD/W.
In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of the general multi-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.57~ 0.59/W. The price of the high-efficiency multi-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.61 /W. The price range of the general mono-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.80~ 0.85/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell price revision is RMB 0.88~ 0.92/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (> 21.7%) price revision is RMB 0.90~ 0.93/W. The price of the bifacial superior high-efficiency mono-Si cells (>21.7%) is revised down to RMB 0.96 /W.
Modules
The market prices of the modules remained stable this week. The Chinese domestic demand gradually increased as the coronavirus outbreak receded. A series of government policies were introduced to extend the deadlines of PV installations for this year. It is expected that the demand that normally emerges in Q2 would be extended to Q3 or even the end of 2020. Regarding the overseas market, various types of installations were impacted by the pandemic. The projects for utility-scale power plants were located in open areas. Therefore the impact was relatively limited. Rooftop or Commercial & Industrial projects were nonetheless under the impact of the outbreak, which led to slower progress in terms of installations.
In the overseas market, the price range of the 60-cell general multi-Si (275W-280W) remains unchanged at US$0.195~ 0.229/W at the moment. The price range of the 72-cell high-efficiency multi-Si (325W-330W) remains unchanged at US$0.205~ 0.238/W. The range of the general mono-Si (305W-310W) price revision is US$0.213 ~0.390/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (315W-320W) price revision is US$0.216~ 0.350/W. The range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>320W) price revision is US$0.222~ 0.390/W.
In the domestic market, the price range of the 60-cell general multi-Si (275W-280W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.50~ 1.61/W. The price range of the 72-cell high-efficiency multi-Si (325W-330W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.55~ 1.63/W. The price range of the general mono-Si (305W-310W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.67~ 1.70/W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (315W-320W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.68~ 1.75/W. The price range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>320W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.73~ 1.78/W.
(Image by Oleg Gamulinskiy from Pixabay)
(Analysis provided by Lions Shih, analyst at EnergyTrend. Translated by Emma Hsu, translator of TrendForce Corp.)
