PV demand remained weak all over the world, while August and September will be the months with the least demand this year. The high inventory level may not allow price to rebound even if demand starts to pick up in October. EnergyTrend projects a downward trend for PV prices across the value chain through September. Prices for polysilicon and wafer will keep decreasing, and for cell and module will be likely to reach new bottom line.
The Chinese polysilicon market still sees a balanced supply and demand relationship due to slightly lowered utilization rates for first- and second-tier multi-si wafer makers in August. Although polysilicon prices have slightly declined every month after June, spot prices haven’t dropped significantly yet in China, reaching RMB 138-141/kg (approximately US$ 17.7-18.1/kg) recently.
In 3Q16, some polysilicon manufacturers will adjust their supplies through conducting maintenance and lowering production to control the speed of price reduction. Even though conducting maintenance can slightly slow down the price reduction, wafer makers still give polysilicon makers a lot of pressure. It’s estimated that polysilicon prices will start to decline as wafer makers continued to lower their utilization rates.
While cell and module prices declined rapidly, polysilicon prices only declined a little. Therefore, wafer, in between, suffered from chaotic pricing.After some of Chinese second-tier cell makers lowered their utilization rates to around 70%, the stock level for wafer leading company continued to increase. Prices dropped to RMB 5-5.2/pc recently in China.
For Taiwan, multi-Si wafer average trading prices has lower than US$ 0.7 per piece, a price that is already lower than production cost. Such a low price also drove wafer manufacturers with larger production capacity to lower their utilization rates to approximately 70%.
The cell market witnessed the most significant decline in prices compared with other sectors of the supply chain. Multi-Si cell prices could no longer surpass US$ 0.23/W. Since cells are now being produced at a loss, the average utilization rate has dropped below 50% for Taiwanese cell makers. Meanwhile, Chinese makers have also lowered their utilization rate with the cell price reaching RMB 1.7~1.75 per watt. The overall weak demand has caused prices of PERC cells or cells made in a third-party countries to drop as well.
Module stock level has increased substantially. In fact, the total stock has exceeded 3GW for all top-tier Chinese module makers, reducing their utilization rates recently. This has caused module prices to drop to RMB 3.1~3.3 per watt in China. The market still hold conservative attitude toward future price trend even though demand may increase in Japan and China in 4Q16. It’s also the same for overseas module prices. For example, module prices in Japan and the US have declined significantly.
