Ever since the Lunar New Year, polysilicon prices have increased rapidly to RMB 145-150/kg recently. As market uncertainties have mostly been eliminated, prices have turned stable. Weaker demand from downstream sectors may lead to slower price growth and prices will peak in late-May. After June, prices will gradually decrease following lower demand.
Wafer, cell, and module makers have completed negotiating for May orders. Chinese multi-Si wafer is priced at RMB 6.2-6.3/pc, with some orders reaching RMB 6.15/pc. Meanwhile, Taiwanese multi-Si wafer is priced at US$ 0.85-0.86/pc. Because multi-Si wafer prices didn’t really reflect the decline in downstream prices, prices may drop further during China’s biggest PV exhibition – SNEC.
Cell makers witness slight decline in prices. Some cells are even priced below US$ 0.3/W in Taiwan. However, the decline in cell prices has slowed down this week. The next price fluctuation will depend on the competition between mid and downstream manufacturers during SNEC. What’s worth notice is that due to strong demand from downstream sectors, many module makers have placed more orders with mono-Si wafer and cell makers, resulting in strong mono-Si demand.
Module manufacturers have started to negotiate for 2H16 orders before the demand growth slows down by June 30th. Module prices will continue to reflect a downtrend as China will witness the lowest demand in 3Q16 and power plant makers are expecting weaker module prices. Price quotes have reached US$ 0.48/W for certain second-tier module makers.
