According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, given the uncertainty surrounding the subsidy policies for the second quarter, along with the increasing demand coming from downstream clients, there is a good chance that the PV industry will perform beyond the expectations of a typical slack quarter during 1Q13.
As EnergyTrend's data indicates, in recent periods the number of industry orders has been on the rise. On the one hand, this has to do with the expected downward adjustments for PV subsidies during Japan's new fiscal year (beginning April 2013). In order to secure proper IRR, efforts to complete investments on grid-connected powers by the end of March have intensified, which in turn is helping to sustain Japan's PV market demand momentum. Given that China's double anti policy may not be officially implemented until Chinese New Year Holiday, Chinese vendors--in anticipating the European Union to carry out their policy at around a similar point in time--will attempt to prevent potential losses from arising during the look back period, and has been taking active steps to accelerate their shipments. The product orders for the Taiwanese PV vendors, as a result, are expected to continue to increase in the periods to come.
In addition to the changes experienced by the European and Japanese markets, the rise of China's domestic solar market, along with the growth experienced by the US market following increased subsidies for the green energy industry, are all contributing to the growing demand in the PV market. The recent subsidies intended for PV development in New York and Los Angeles, the emphasis on the use of renewable energy resources by US President Barrack Obama, and the large US power plant investments are also important factors that, according to relevant vendors, are continuing to reinforce PV market momentum. With the above factors taken into account, the prospects for the solar market in 2013, on the whole, remain largely optimistic.
With regards to the spot market, given the strengthened demand momentum and the reluctance on the part of the industry vendors to engage in transactions, polysilicon price quoted by Chinese businesses have continued to grow.
