Due to the increasing demand and the solar subsidy reduction in the German market, all silicon wafer makers have reached full production capacity at present.
The research institute EnergyTrend says, in the future, as silicon wafer shortage continues and German government tends to cut the subsidy in the beginning of 2010Q3 , Q2 quotation will keep on rising, estimated up by 8.5% on quarterly base.
According to the survey of EnergyTrend, the silicon wafer market quotes maintain uptrend, ranging from $3 to $3.2 per piece. The average price is $3.2, dropping slightly compared with 2009Q4.
Both the silicon wafer shortage and Q3 2010 subsidy cuts in Germany strengthen the restocking momentum in the third quarter of 2010, further boosting the silicon wafer price in the market.
EnergyTrend estimates the quarterly growth rate of quotes up 8.5% in Q2. However, as the market demand will enter the low season in Q3, the average price for this quarter will remain nearly the same as that of Q2, even likely to have a tentative price fall and the quarterly growth rate is estimated between 0% and 1.5%.
In regard to the price trend of polycrystalline silicon, because first-tier and emerging makers will ramp up production capacities in the 2H 2010, the oversupply will become more severe, prompting manufacturers to take a more aggressive quotation strategy.
EnergyTrend believes polycrystalline silicon makers will face more price pressure than silicon wafer and solar cell makers. The polycrystalline silicon price will drop to $50/kg, quarterly price down by 10%. If the demand outlook doesn’t meet the expectation, the polycrystalline silicon makers may set a strategic price between $48 and $49 per kilogram in the early Q3 for major customers in order to ensure the shipment as expected.
