Policy Stimulus Drives Strong Rebound in Capacity Utilization
The first half of 2025 marks a crucial policy juncture for the photovoltaic (PV) industry. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs and Promoting High-Quality Development of New Energy" (Document No. 136), clearly stipulating that starting June 1st, the on-grid electricity of incremental new energy projects should in principle all enter the power market for trading. Simultaneously, the "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" draws a line between old and new projects on May 1st, making April 30th a significant deadline for industrial and commercial distributed PV projects to connect to the grid and obtain existing policy dividends.
Affected by this, the PV industry has seen a "rush to install." Especially for distributed PV projects, in order to connect to the grid before the policy deadline and enjoy better feed-in tariffs or maintain the original on-grid model, demand has surged in the short term. Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that policy stimulus for PV rush installations is expected to drive a rebound in enterprise capacity utilization rates. As policy deadlines such as "April 30th" and "May 31st" approach, the PV industry has entered a stage of rush installations, and module manufacturers are concentrating on releasing production capacity to meet policy grid connection requirements. According to TrendForce's survey, Chinese policy stimulus is driving overall demand in the PV industry, leading to a tight supply of modules, with demand expected to peak in March and April 2025. It is projected that the growth rate of PV installations in April and May will significantly rebound, leading to a substantial increase in the capacity utilization rate of module manufacturers.
Improved Supply and Demand Fuel Full Production Lines
From the demand side, although the year-on-year growth rate of domestic PV installations slowed down in January-February 2025 due to factors such as the installation base, a large number of installations at the end of 2024, and the off-season, it still achieved 39.47GW of new installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 7.49%. With the policy stimulus effect emerging, there are signs of a recovery in demand.
On the supply side, module supply is tight. Mainstream module manufacturers have seen a significant increase in orders, and production line utilization rates are continuously improving to meet market demand. Domestic module production in February was approximately 41.9GW, and the planned production for March is expected to reach 52GW, an increase of 24% month-on-month. The order intake rate of module manufacturers has significantly rebounded in March and April, with some leading module suppliers raising prices multiple times. The current high price has reached 0.73 yuan/watt, and the average price is 0.7 yuan/watt. Driven by both price increases and increased orders, enterprises are fully increasing production line capacity utilization to ensure product delivery.
Industrial Chain Collaboration Ensures Capacity Release
The development of the PV industry is inseparable from the coordinated cooperation of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. In the module production process, PV auxiliary material enterprises play an important role. Taking Kuake Electronic as an example, it has increased business collaboration with module manufacturers to accelerate the supply of products adapted to N-type technology. With the widespread application of N-type technology in the PV industry, the demand for matching auxiliary materials has greatly increased. Enterprises such as Kuake Electronic provide sufficient auxiliary material support for module manufacturers by optimizing production processes and increasing production capacity, further ensuring the release of module capacity and helping to increase module capacity utilization rates.
Stable Consumption Safeguards Production Sustainability
After PV modules are produced, the consumption of their generated electricity is directly related to the sustainable development of the industry. In February 2025, the national PV power generation utilization rate reached 93.4%. Stable consumption capacity provides solid grid connection support for module production. A higher PV power generation utilization rate means that the electricity generated by PV power stations can be smoothly integrated into the grid, reducing the risk of capacity idling caused by consumption problems. This allows module manufacturers to not worry about the power consumption after their products are connected to the grid, enabling them to arrange production plans more stably and maintain high capacity utilization rates.
In summary, the capacity utilization rate of PV modules in April 2025 is in an upward channel, with the rush installation demand brought by the policy window and the improvement of the supply-demand pattern being the core driving factors. Under the joint action of policy, market, industrial chain support, and consumption, the PV module industry is ushering in new development opportunities.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pMukFO9spDxJcGW3pMchVw
