Just recently, Finland announced a significant development in its energy sector. On April 1st, the Finnish government declared that Finland would completely cease using coal for energy production this spring as the country's two energy companies gradually shut down all their coal-fired power plants.
The Finnish government stated in a press release that this move is a crucial step in Finland's energy transition, four years ahead of the statutory deadline. Energy production based on fossil fuels will be replaced by low-carbon, clean, and renewable solutions, ushering in a more stable, sustainable, and climate-friendly energy system for Finland.
The Finnish government explicitly stated that future electricity production will focus on developing wind, nuclear, hydro, and solar power, supplemented by technologies such as electric boilers, heat pumps, and energy storage to build a new energy system. This strategy aligns closely with Europe's overall carbon neutrality goals. According to EU plans, renewable energy needs to account for 45% of final energy consumption by 2030, with photovoltaics (PV) considered a core tool for achieving this target. Finland's practice demonstrates that the synergy of policy guidance and market mechanisms can significantly accelerate the replacement of fossil fuels with clean energy.
It is understood that Finland's coal phase-out stems from the "Coal Ban Act of 2029" passed in 2019. Through large-scale investments in wind power, nuclear energy, and bioenergy, Finland's coal power share plummeted from 8% in 2016 to less than 1% in 2025, while wind power generation's share soared to 25%, driving €26 billion in green industrial investment. Although Finland's current PV installed capacity is limited, and Nordic countries have relatively moderate PV demand due to a high proportion of hydropower, its energy transition path reveals the future trend of the European market: the exit of fossil fuels will inevitably be accompanied by a diversified deployment of renewable energy, with PV playing a key role.
Finland's "Coal Exit" Reshapes the Solar Landscape
Finland has consistently invested in renewable energy. Previously, the Finnish government agreed to provide priority facilitation for green transition projects between 2023 and 2026. In early 2023, the Finnish government also adopted a new hydrogen strategy, setting a target of producing 1 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030, accounting for one-tenth of the EU's total target of 10 million tons.
In fact, compared to other European countries, Finland's electricity market appears quite "unstable." Over the past few years, Finland's energy system has undergone a significant transformation. With the commissioning of the new 1.6 GW Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant in April 2023, Finland's total installed nuclear capacity reached 4.37 GW. Renewable energy has also generally shown an upward trend. Wind power installed capacity increased by 2.43 GW in 2022, reaching a total installed capacity of 5.67 GW by the end of that year. Subsequently, the growth momentum continued, with installed capacity increasing to 6.94 GW by the end of 2023.
At the same time, the proportion of photovoltaics in Finland's renewable energy sector is also steadily increasing. Finland's sunshine hours are roughly equivalent to those of Germany and Denmark, and cold weather does not affect solar panels. Currently, Finland's PV power plant installed capacity is continuously increasing. According to data from the Finnish national grid operator (Fingrid), Finland's solar power generation capacity will reach 7 GW by 2030 (in 2023, Finland's total power generation capacity was approximately 20 GW).
Finland's achievement of its coal phase-out target four years ahead of schedule demonstrates the driving effect of proactive policies on clean energy. Other EU countries such as Germany have already planned to phase out coal power by 2030 and significantly increase the proportion of renewable energy. Finland's success story will encourage more countries to increase their support policies for photovoltaics.
Europe's Solar Market "Has Changed"
Although Finland's "coal exit" sends a positive signal to the European solar market, the current state of the European solar market is not entirely rosy.
Data shows that the European market installed 65.5 GW of photovoltaics in 2024, marking the eighth consecutive year of breaking the annual new installed capacity record. However, the slowdown in the growth rate of installations in 2024 is significant. The annual growth rate was as high as 53% in 2023, but only 4% in 2024.
Looking at the breakdown, in 2024, European residential PV demand plummeted by nearly 5 GW, with an installed capacity of 12.8 GW, roughly the same as in 2022. The residential market has shown almost no significant growth trend.
Currently, only France and Romania have seen significant growth in residential PV installations, but the cumulative installed capacity in these two countries is relatively low and insufficient to drive the entire European residential market.
Compared to the sluggish residential PV market, the European commercial and industrial (C&I) PV sector experienced a slight increase. Among EU member states, nearly 20 countries saw an increase in C&I PV installations. In addition, the proportion of large-scale ground-mounted PV power plants is also rising.
As is well known, Europe remains the "primary market" for China's PV module exports. China is the absolute main supplier of PV modules globally, with the European market accounting for more than 30% of its export share. The supply-demand imbalance in domestic production has simultaneously led to a sharp drop in the price of PV modules in the European market.
In fact, since around August, p-type single-sided modules have generally been the cheapest type of module per watt in Europe. By January of this year, module prices began to recover slightly. For example, the price of p-type single-sided modules rebounded by €0.005/W, and the prices of n-type single/double-sided modules also maintained a steady upward trend.
However, looking at the overall price trend chart, the rebound in January has not completely solved the current predicament of European module prices, and module manufacturers are still in a state of "heavy losses." Nevertheless, it is precisely against the backdrop of the sharp price drop that large-scale ground-mounted PV power plants can leverage their price advantage to promote the growth of ground-mounted PV installations in Europe.
According to relevant data, in 2024, China exported 235.93 GW of PV modules, an increase of 13% compared to 207.99 GW in 2023, but shipments to Europe decreased by 7%. Europe's module imports in 2024 were 94.4 GW, lower than the 101.48 GW in 2023. Among them, the Netherlands accounted for 40% of China's module imports, while Spain ranked second with imports of 10.57 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 10% compared to the 11.75 GW in 2023.
The essence of the sharp drop in European PV module prices is the imbalance between supply and demand. The signal released by Finland's coal exit is that Europe's clean energy demand will continue to grow. It is predicted that Europe's PV installed capacity may see another increase in 2025, especially with the increase in large-scale ground-mounted power plant projects. The recovery in demand, coupled with production cuts by enterprises (domestic module manufacturers' inventory has fallen below 50 GW), has led to a 33% rebound in module prices since the second quarter of 2025, with some models exceeding RMB 0.9/W.
For Chinese enterprises, this transformation is not only a challenge but also an excellent opportunity for global layout and technological upgrades. Only by breaking away from "involutionary" price competition and using technology as a spear and cooperation as a shield can they remain invincible in the new cycle of the European and even the global solar market.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6VTbI_AGlDMjCoqIT_ZsWg
