With the arrival of 2024, the PV industry is undergoing unprecedented changes, with the evolution of wafer sizes and technological innovations becoming key driving forces. This article will analyze the current state and future prospects of the PV industry from three perspectives: wafer size selection, technological innovation, and market trends.
Wafer Size Evolution: The Acceleration of the 210 Series
As we enter 2024, wafers of size M6 and below have fully transitioned to the category of non-standard products, marking the official arrival of the large wafer era. Although early in the year, cell and module manufacturers were hesitant between different rectangular wafer sizes, market data suggests that the choice of 182*210mm (i.e., 210R) wafers is gradually becoming mainstream. Despite the overall market slump slightly slowing the upgrade pace of rectangular wafer sizes across manufacturers, the share of 210 series products continues to grow steadily. Statistics show that, in the first half of the year, the 210 series products accounted for about 26% of the wafer segment, with 210R rectangular wafers exceeding 8% and still rising. In the module segment, due to a relatively slow transition, the 210 series products maintain a market share of around 23%. Latest forecast suggests that the 210 series products are expected to reach a market share of around 28% for the full year of 2024, with 210R products exceeding 10%. This trend not only reflects the market’s recognition of the efficiency of large wafers but also indicates that the standardization of PV modules will further shift towards larger wafer sizes in the future.
Technological Innovation: Advancing Thin-Wafer and Silver-Free Technologies
On the technological innovation front, the PV industry is rapidly advancing towards two major directions: thin-wafer and silver-free technologies. For thin-wafer technology, the industry has already mass-produced wafers with a thickness of 110μm and plans to introduce 100μm-thick wafers by the end of 2024, with full replacement expected by 2025. This shift will significantly reduce silicon material costs, improving the cost-effectiveness of PV products. Additionally, the adoption of thin-wafer technology in HJT cells will make its cost advantages more apparent as the industry normalizes. In terms of silver-free technology, silver-coated copper solutions, especially those with 50% silver content paste, are showing performance equivalent to pure silver with lower costs. Moreover, the application of 0BB technology significantly improves cell efficiency without compromising performance. Looking ahead, with the widespread use of fully open mesh screens and low-silver content paste, the metallization cost of HJT cells is expected to drop further to an ideal level (3-4 cents/watt). Electroplated copper, as one of the ultimate silver-free technologies, is currently in early research and is being verified by companies like Tongwei. In the future, the combination of electroplated copper and 0BB technology is expected to become the mainstream technology path.
Market Trends: Steady Rise in Dual-Glass Modules
From a market trend perspective, the share of dual-glass modules is steadily rising. With the increasing penetration of N-type modules, although manufacturers are developing N-type single-glass modules, their ratio remains low in the short term due to concerns about reliability, leading the market to prefer dual-glass designs. Additionally, the rapid growth of domestic utility-scale projects further drives demand for dual-glass modules. Statistics show that bifacial modules accounted for about 64% of the market in 2023, with around 3% contributed by transparent backsheet modules. Entering 2024, with the continued rise of N-type penetration and the gradual phase-out of PERC modules, the share of dual-glass modules is expected to increase further. Given the current decline in glass prices and the cost advantage of N-type dual-glass modules, the share of dual-glass modules is expected to grow to around 80% by 2025. However, looking beyond 2026, the demand for single-glass modules from commercial and industrial projects, along with the increasing adoption of XBC modules, may cause the share of dual-glass modules to decline slightly, though it will still remain at a high level overall.
In conclusion, in 2024, the PV industry is being driven by the dual forces of wafer size evolution and technological innovation. The widespread adoption of large wafers will further enhance the efficiency and economic performance of PV products, while breakthroughs in thin-wafer and silver-free technologies are expected to significantly reduce production costs and propel the industry to a higher level of development. Meanwhile, market trends suggest that dual-glass modules will dominate in the near future. In the face of these transformations and challenges, PV companies need to stay aligned with technological trends and market dynamics, constantly adjusting strategies to stay competitive in the future market.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8HPleHlLISFywzBQ_a7haQ
