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Fierce Competition in Photovoltaic Module Technology: TOPCon Leads, HJT Breaks Through, XBC Emerges

published: 2024-09-02 16:29

At the crossroads of technological route iteration, combined with the industry's intense competition, companies are leveraging technology to break the cycle of homogenization.

Among these, module efficiency, as a key indicator of a company's technological strength and the performance of photovoltaic modules, has become a battleground for players in the industry.

Overall, Chinese photovoltaic companies dominated the top 20 list, with all modules utilizing new cell technology, and efficiency continuing to improve. Among the top 20 ranked modules, the highest efficiency was achieved by XBC technology, with a maximum module efficiency of 24.2%. HJT technology followed closely, with a efficiency of 23.18%. TOPCon technology, representing over 60% of the modules, achieved a maximum efficiency of 22.8%.

Top 20 Photovoltaic Module Efficiencies in August:

The Value Players—TOPCon

After two years of rapid cost reduction and efficiency improvement, TOPCon modules have taken the spotlight due to their low cost and high performance. Leading companies in this segment include JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, Tongwei, Astronergy, Canadian Solar, and DAS Solar. Looking at the timeline, in January, Astronergy and JinkoSolar led with a efficiency of 22.65% for TOPCon modules. By February, Tongwei had raised module efficiency from 22.5% to 22.8%, with Astronergy, JA Solar, and DMEGC Solar following suit, achieving 22.8% efficiency. Notably, among the 17 TOPCon companies, only five achieved an efficiency of 22.8%, while the lowest efficiency was 22.45%, a difference of 0.35%. Over the eight months, the companies with the most significant efficiency improvements were Tongwei, Astronergy, and DMEGC Solar, with a 0.3% increase. It’s undeniable that TOPCon is leading in application.

Among the 164GW of photovoltaic modules contracted from January to July this year, n-type modules have almost entirely replaced p-type in the market. Moreover, TOPCon modules now have a price advantage, with both p-type and n-type modules priced at 0.785 RMB/W in July.

However, with the competitive landscape set from the start, the industry is keenly focused on how long TOPCon’s technological advantages can last. Leading companies believe TOPCon will remain the mainstream technology for the next five years. JinkoSolar’s Vice President, Qian Jing, asserts that TOPCon has a clear path to efficiency improvement and is the absolute mainstream, the foundational technology for the foreseeable future in mass production. Trina Solar’s Vice President, Dr. Chen Yifeng, has also stated that there is still significant room for efficiency improvement in TOPCon cell technology over the next five years.

The Pursuers—Heterojunction (HJT)

In the January-August photovoltaic module efficiency rankings, HJT modules showed a clear advantage, with leading companies including Huasheng , Tongwei, Risen Energy, and the overseas company REC Group, with the former two consistently ranking in the top 5. Specifically, Huasheng’s Himalaya series modules improved from 23.02% in January to 23.18%, Tongwei’s HJT modules maintained an efficiency level of 23%, and Risen Energy consistently held a spot on the list with an efficiency of 22.5%. In July, REC Group’s HJT modules entered the top 20, with efficiency jumping from 22.3% to 22.6%. Additionally, Canadian Solar's HJT modules ranked in the top 20 in January and February, with a maximum efficiency of 22.5%, though they did not appear in subsequent rankings.

In recent years, heterojunction cell technology, with its high efficiency, high bifaciality, and lack of p-type capacity burden, has become favored by new players, and HJT technology has a clear cost reduction path.

According to Huasheng New Energy's Chairman, Xu Xiaohua, thanks to the widespread use of silver-clad copper technology, the cost of Huasheng’s HJT modules will be around 0.8 RMB/W (including depreciation) once their new plant reaches full production, with costs expected to match TOPCon by the end of this year. Moreover, Huasheng has completed the layout and commercialization of mainstream and cutting-edge technologies, such as 0BB. Meanwhile, Risen Energy, the only company in the global top 10 focused on HJT product development and manufacturing, has established an integrated research and development model from silicon material to modules. It is worth noting that to accelerate the industrialization of heterojunction technology,

HJT companies are increasingly focusing on the overall coordinated development of the industry chain. Last July, a collaborative innovation platform for HJT technology industrialization was established, bringing together 150 companies across the industry chain. This year, the High-Efficiency HJT 740W+ Club was also founded, including leading HJT companies, aiming to fully leverage the high power advantages of HJT technology and promote technological progress.

In fact, HJT modules are also gradually gaining recognition from central state-owned enterprises. This year, central enterprises like China Datang Corporation, China Huadian Corporation, China Green Development Group, and China Power Construction Corporation have frequently issued gigawatt-level procurement orders, with some even designating HJT as a separate procurement category. According to CPIA, the market share of heterojunction cells is expected to rise from 2.6% in 2023 to 34.3% by 2030.

The Disruptors—XBC

XBC technology is gaining prominence with its higher efficiency. In the January-August module efficiency rankings, Aiko Solar consistently ranked first with its proprietary n-type ABC technology, with module efficiency increasing from 24% to 24.2%. The second and third spots were also held by XBC modules, with Maxeon’s n-type IBC modules, a subsidiary of TCL Zhonghuan, achieving 24.1%, and LONGi’s Hi-MO X6 series modules reaching a efficiency of 23.2%.

XBC technology is considered the crown jewel of crystalline silicon technology due to its high efficiency and aesthetics. However, its technical challenges and high process thresholds deter many companies. Currently, only LONGi and Aiko Solar have scaled up production. LONGi has released the first and second generations of BC products, with the second-generation Hi-MO 9 achieving a maximum module efficiency of 24.43%, primarily due to advancements in passivation technology and the introduction of Tyrai silicon wafer technology.

In terms of capacity, according to LONGi’s announcement, its 12.5GW annual production project for high-efficiency BC cells is expected to begin production by the end of 2024 and be fully operational by June 2025. By the end of 2025, the combined capacity of BC generations one and two will reach approximately 70GW.

In June, Aiko Solar launched a new generation of ABC "Full-Screen" modules, with mass production efficiency expected to exceed 25%. Aiko Solar is also expanding its production capacity, with 25GW planned at its Zhuhai and Yiwu bases, and an additional 10GW at its new Jinan facility, expected to start production in the first half of 2025.

The continued investment and technological breakthroughs by these two giants further demonstrate their confidence and strength in BC technology. From the market perspective, BC products are also gaining increasing recognition. Recently, for the first time, the second batch of photovoltaic module procurement by Huaneng Group for 2024 included a gigawatt-level BC module segment.

In 2024, the rapidly evolving photovoltaic technology landscape sees TOPCon technology replacing PERC with its price advantage, while HJT technology breaks through, and XBC technology challenges the status quo.

Source:BJX PV

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