Wafer prices remained stable this week, with the average transaction price of N-type G10L mono-Si wafers (182*183.75 mm/130μm/256mm) remaining unchanged at RMB 1.12/pc, unchanged from the previous month. The average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130μm) remained unchanged at RMB 1.31/pc, unchanged from the previous month. The average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210 mm/150μm) remained unchanged at RMB 1.65/pc, unchanged from the previous month.
On the supply side, wafer production is expected to be around 50.6GW in July, a decrease of about 0.7GW from June. These reductions were greater than the increases, resulting in a month-on-month decrease of about 1.4% in July. In addition, companies such as Yuze and JYT have plans to increase the operating rate, and it is not excluded that the subsequent production of the two companies will increase the expected output again.
On the demand side, cell production is expected to be 49GW and module production is expected to be 48GW in July. On the cell side, the price of M10 mono-Si TOPCon cells remained at RMB 0.3/W, and cell companies suffered serious blood loss, so even if the relationship between wafer supply and demand improved, the tolerance of cells to wafer price increases is very low, and the room for price increases cannot be transmitted downward. On the module side, the price of 182mm TOPCon double-sided double-glass modules remained at RMB 0.86/W. Since entering the third quarter, domestic installed capacity projects have been increasing in volume after the price of the industrial chain has stabilized, and the short-term module side has not felt obviously, but in the medium and long term, the domestic terminal demand in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year.
This week, the operating rates of the two first-tier enterprises remained at 50% and 95% respectively. The operating rate of integrated enterprises is maintained between 50% and 60%, and the operating rate of the rest of enterprises is maintained between 30% and 100%. In the medium to long term, the withdrawal of polysilicon production capacity and the improvement of terminal demand are the two important factors that will really determine the future direction of the industrial chain.
