Wafer prices were mixed this week, with the average transaction price of N-type G10L mono-Si wafers (182*183.75 mm/130μm/256mm) rising to RMB 1.12/pc, up 0.9% month-on-month. The average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130μm) dropped to RMB 1.31/piece, down 9.66% month-on-month. The average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210 mm/150μm) remained unchanged at RMB 1.65/pc, unchanged from the previous month. The main reason for the mixed wafer prices is that the supply of small-sized wafers has been tight during the G10L and G12R capacity switchovers.
On the supply side, wafer production in July is expected to be between 50 GW and 52 GW, basically unchanged from June. The increase mainly came from Gaojing and Central, with a month-on-month increase of about 9.7%, and the rest of the enterprises reduced production or even stopped production to varying degrees. At present, the above two leading enterprises are close to full production, mainly due to the production cost advantage, which mainly depends on the comprehensive material cost, automation degree, yield rate and other factors. At this stage, there is a game between integrated and specialized enterprises, and specialized enterprises will control the price increase within the scope of integration to abandon production and turn to procurement.
On the demand side, cell production is expected to be 49GW and module production is expected to be 48GW in July. On the cell side, the price of M10 mono TOPCon cells remained at RMB 0.3/W. Second- and third-tier battery companies continue to reduce production, and the current battery inventory has dropped to less than a week, which is within a reasonable range. On the module side, the price of 182mm TOPCon bificial double-glass modules remained at RMB 0.86/W. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, the new domestic installed capacity in May was 19.04GW, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, and it is expected that the domestic installed capacity demand will continue to be strong in the third quarter, and the aftermath of overseas policy risks will basically subside, and the recovery in demand may support module prices.
This week, the operating rates of the two first-tier enterprises remained at 50% and 95% respectively. The operating rate of integrated enterprises is maintained between 50% and 60%, and the operating rate of the rest of enterprises is maintained between 30% and 100% respectively. Based on the above supply-demand relationship, it can be seen that wafer inventories continue to decrease, and the overall trend is improving, and small-sized wafers may rebound ahead of large-size wafers.
