1. Localization of photovoltaic paste
(1) The development of paste in 2023
The unit consumption of paste continued to decline significantly. In 2023, the unit consumption of aluminum paste of PERC cells will drop to 264mg/piece, and the average consumption of PERC cells (frontal silver + back silver) will be 84mg/piece. The average consumption of double-sided silver paste (aluminum) (95% silver) of n-type TOPCon cells is about 109mg/piece and that of bificial low-temperature silver paste in HJT cells is about 115mg/piece. It is estimated that by 2030, with the continuous introduction of 0BB and LECO technologies, the average consumption of double-sided silver paste for TOPCon cells will be reduced to about 80mg/piece, and the bificial low-temperature silver paste for HJT cells will be reduced to about 70mg/piece.
Cell production is growing rapidly, and the scale of the slurry market continues to expand. In 2023, China's battery output will reach 591.3GW, an increase of 78.9% year-on-year. With a higher growth rate than the global cell production, the total consumption of silver paste corresponding to batteries in China was about 6,243 tons, an increase of 49.2% year-on-year, of which the total consumption of frontal silver was about 5,028 tons, and the total consumption of back silver was about 1,206 tons. In 2023, the total global consumption of aluminum paste will be about 189.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, and the total consumption of aluminum paste in China will be 163.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%.
(2) Localization of slurry
The degree of localization of P-type and n-type cell silver pastes has further increased. From 2018 to 2023, the competitiveness of China frontal silver paste in terms of performance and price has been significantly enhanced, the foreign supplier market has been continuously compressed, and the proportion of domestic silver paste market has begun to increase rapidly. According to the survey, the market share of China frontal silver paste will further increase from 61% in 2021 to more than 95% in 2023. The top five companies in the global supply of frontal silver paste together sell frontal silver paste, accounting for more than 75% of the global frontal silver paste market demand.
Low-temperature silver paste. The low-temperature paste for HJT cell has realized the mass production of the paste of main gate, fine grid sterling silver and silver-clad copper, and the silver-clad copper low-temperature paste has further reduced the silver content and realized the industrial application. At present, the silver-clad copper paste containing 30% silver has been initially industrialized. In the future, with the further popularization of silver paste with a silver content of 20% or even lower, the silver consumption of HJT cells will be effectively reduced, providing the possibility for further cost reduction of HJT cells.
2. the development of photovoltaic industry backsheets
On the demand side, global module production in 2023 will be 612.2GW, of which about 35.4% will be single-glass modules. Due to the increase in the market share of high-efficiency modules and the improvement of module conversion efficiency, the backsheet consumption per GW of modules decreased by about 2.1% year-on-year. If calculated based on the consumption of 4.7 million m2 of thin-film backsheet per GW of photovoltaic modules, the global annual demand for backsheets is about 1.02 billion m².
On the supply side, under the requirements of photovoltaic power generation parity and cost reduction and efficiency increase, the market concentration of photovoltaic backsheet enterprises is relatively high, from the original multinational hegemony to domestic concentration. Due to the fact that foreign traditional backplane companies do not adapt to the industrial environment of rapid cost reduction, their profit margins have become thinner, their market share has decreased year by year, and they have finally withdrawn from the market. Since 2016, Toppan of Japan, Toray, 3M, Kembo, Taihong and Aesop have withdrawn from the backsheet market, and Toyo Aluminum's sales have also been shrinking. There are only a few foreign backsheet companies that are still active in the backsheet market, such as Coveme in Germany. With the overall rise of domestic backsheet enterprises, the market concentration has continued to increase year by year, and through continuous technological innovation and market expansion, it has occupied more than 90% of the global market share. The main domestic enterprises engaged in the production of photovoltaic backsheets are Suzhou Cybrid, Suzhou Jolywood, Crown, Lekai Film, First, Huitian, Exciton Technology, Yisheng, Hondol, etc. With the continuous growth of global photovoltaic installed capacity, the demand for photovoltaic backsheets has increased significantly, and mainstream backsheet manufacturers in the market, such as Suzhou Jolywood, Suzhou Cybrid, Crown, First, etc., have announced expansion plans in 2023. In recent years, the demand for thin film backsheet market has rebounded, and the types of demand have also shown diversified development, such as the emergence of black mesh transparent backsheet bifacial modules. Lightweight flexible modules using transparent front modules have also been developed, and there is a certain market demand for color steel tile roofs with poor load-bearing capacity, high-speed slopes, and photovoltaic renovation of building exterior walls.
3. The situation of photovoltaic encapsulation film
In 2023, the global PV module encapsulation film market demand will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend. With the further application of bifacial modules and large-size modules and the continuous increase of module power, the amount of encapsulant used in an average single-watt module has decreased accordingly. In 2023, the global module production will reach 612.2GW, a year-on-year increase of 76.2%, and the annual encapsulation film market demand will be about 5.75 billion m², a year-on-year increase of about 80%. Among them, China's module output will be about 518.1GW in 2023, and the demand market size of China's encapsulation film will be about 4.87 billion m².
At present, the main encapsulation materials on the market are transparent EVA film, white EVA film, polyolefin (POE) film, co-extruded polyolefin composite flm EPE (EVA-POE-EVA) film and other encapsulation films (including PDMS/Silicon film, PVB film, TPU film) and so on. In 2023, the module packaging material will still be dominated by transparent EVA film, accounting for about 42.5% of the market share; White EVA film accounts for about 16% of the market share. The market share of POE film increased slightly, accounting for about 13.2%. The market share of co-extruded EPE film will increase to 27.8% in 2023. Other types of adhesive films, such as PVB, account for about 0.5%.
