Average conversion efficiency of various cell technologies
In 2023, the average conversion efficiency of p-type BSF polycrystalline black silicon cells in large-scale production reached 19.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from 2022. The average conversion efficiency of p-type PERC black silicon cells reached 21.4%, an increase of 0.3% from 2022, and the average conversion efficiency of p-type PERC ingot monocrystalline cells will reach 22.7%, an increase of 0.2% from 2022. The downstream demand for multi-Si products is not strong, which cannot provide the impetus for efficiency improvement, and the increase in conversion efficiency is mainly brought by the improvement of wafer quality, and the efficiency will basically remain the same in the future with no significant improvement. In 2023, p-type mono cells adopted PERC technology, with an average conversion efficiency of 23.4%, an increase of 0.2% compared with 2022, while n-type TOPCon cells reached an average conversion efficiency of 25.0% and HJT cells reached 25.2%. Both of them were greatly improved compared with 2022. In the future, with the reduction of production costs and the improvement of yield, n-type cell will become one of the main development directions of cell technology, and the efficiency will also be improved rapidly.
Figure: Trend of average conversion efficiency of various battery technologies from 2023 to 2030
Note: Only positive efficiency is recorded. The statistical specifications of n-type HJT cells are 182mm half-cell and 210mm half-cell.
Market share of different cell technology routes
In 2023, the newly put into operation mass production lines was mainly n-type cell production lines. With the release of n-type cell production capacity, the market share of PERC cells has been reduced to 73.0%. N-type cells accounted for about 26.5% of the total, of which n-type TOPCon cells accounted for about 23.0%, HJT cells accounted for about 2.6%, and XBC cells accounted for about 0.9%. All were significantly higher than in 2022. In 2023, BSF products and MWT products will account for about 0.5% of the cell market.
Figure: Trend of market share of different cell technology routes from 2023 to 2030
Market share of various busbars
Under the premise of increasing the shading area of the cell and affecting the series welding process of the module, increasing the number of busbars is conducive to shortening the current transmission path of the fine grid in the cell, reducing the power loss of the battery, improving the uniformity of the stress distribution of the cell to reduce the fragmentation rate, and reducing the impact of grid breakage and hidden cracking on the power of the battery.
(1) PERC cells
In 2023, with the increase in the size of mainstream PERC cells, 9BB and above technologies have become the new mainstream in the market, of which 9BB technology accounted for about 12.9%, 10BB technology accounted for about 38.4%, and 11BB and above accounted for about 48.7%.
Chart: 2023-2030 PERC cell market share of various busbar technologies
(2) TOPCon cells
In 2023, most TOPCon cells were 182mm or 210mm in size, with a market share of about 87.5% for 16BB and above technologies, 10.1% for 11BB, and 2.4% for 9BB or 10BB. In the future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the technical upgrading of old production lines, 9BB and 10BB technology will gradually decrease, and the market share of 16BB and above technology will gradually increase to more than 99% in 2030.
Chart: 2023-2030 market share of TOPCon cells by busbar technology
