A Significant Increase in Polysilicon Scheduling Production in July; The Industry Demand is Expected to Maintain High Growth in 2024

During June, the sharp decline in polysilicon prices caused hesitancy in downstream demand, resulting in downward adjustments to module scheduling production. However, the scenario changed in July as polysilicon prices dropped further to about 60,000 yuan per ton, falling below the cash cost of production capacity. As a result, upstream prices stabilized, leading to a substantial 15% month-on-month increase in module scheduling production. This upward trend is anticipated to continue into August. In the third quarter, there is a projected large-scale procurement within the country, resulting in a positive IRR (Internal Rate of Return) and fostering a willingness for downstream installations. The module price has currently declined to around 1.3-1.4 yuan per watt, and the industry is expected to experience a peak season of large-scale procurement in Q3. Looking ahead to 2024, there are three factors favoring the domestic IRR. Moreover, in the overseas market, a rate cuts cycle is predicted, which would keep the IRR favorable even if electricity prices remain stable. Consequently, the demand in the industry is expected to sustain high growth throughout 2024.