In the current week, the polysilicon market has exhibited stability with a slight upward trend, accompanied by an expansion in the price difference between N-type and P-type polysilicon. The prices of recharge polysilicon remain close to the average production cost for polysilicon enterprises, leading to occasional maintenance and shutdowns. Among the small factories, the majority have signed orders for July, with seven companies securing new orders. However, the overall turnover has declined compared to the previous period, primarily due to some companies lacking the spare capacity to accept new orders this month. On the supply side, several companies, including Dongli Solar, Baofeng, Hoyuan, and Hoshine, have new projects scheduled to commence production at the end of July. However, the industry continues to face an oversupply situation.
On the demand side, the operational capacity of downstream wafer enterprises has recently improved, driven by centralized procurement activities. As a result, there has been a slight increase in the demand for wafers. With most N-type cell production lines set to expand their production capacity in the third quarter, downstream enterprises will procure more N-type polysilicon (including recharge polysilicon), further widening the price gap between N-type and P-type varieties.
Currently, there are still 14 domestic silicon enterprises in production, with three companies undergoing regular equipment and line maintenance. One of these companies is expected to resume operations in the middle of the month, while the remaining two will resume before the end of the month. Additionally, a few individual enterprises have reduced their operational load, resulting in minimal impact on production. From July to August, there will be an increase in polysilicon production capacity, with an anticipated average monthly output ranging between 125,000 to 127,000 tons. During the same period, the average monthly output of wafers is expected to reach 47 to 49GW. Regarding supply and demand, the demand is projected to slightly lag behind supply, with oversupply mainly concentrated in the P-type polysilicon segment.
