Polysilicon prices have reached a stable point, marking the most significant change in the PV industry chain prices during the first half of 2023. In contrast to the end of 2022, the rebound of the PV industry is distinguished by the expectation that prices throughout the industry chain will bottom out and remain stable this year. Towards the end of 2022, silicon prices rebounded to highs above 200,000 per ton. However, as production capacity continued to increase, prices started a continuous decline. Consequently, the market's outlook on silicon prices turned pessimistic. However, starting from June this year, silicon prices rapidly fell below the industry's average production cost, accompanied by an increasing rate of decline. With no further room for price decline, the PV industry initiated a rebound. It is projected that silicon prices will maintain bottom level throughout the second half of 2023, coinciding with an expected increase in customer installation capacity.
This decline in silicon prices will fuel a rise in global installed PV demand. In June 2023, module prices experienced a sharp decrease, dropping to around 1.4 yuan per watt in the market. The second half of 2023 is anticipated to witness even lower module prices compared to the period from January to May. Additionally, the latter half of 2023 will be the peak season for PV installation. Based on the May PV installation figures, it is estimated that PV installation capacity will reach 151.51 GW from June to December 2023.
N-type cells are currently flourishing, although TOPCon faces production challenges beyond market expectations, potentially extending the dividend period for its technology. In the long term, leading enterprises are expected to maintain a competitive advantage, maintaining a lead in efficiency and cost. ABC cells are anticipated to experience a substantial increase in shipments in 2023. Leading enterprises will expedite the expansion of production capacity to instill confidence in the market.
