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Thanks to continuing cost reduction, PV power has been undergoing a rapid transformation into a cheap energy, as a result of which Wood Mackenzie, a market information body, predicts that accumulated global PV power capacities would top 1 terawatt, or 1 trillion watts, within five years.
In fact, Wood Mackenzie and its subsidiary GTM have been constantly raising their forecast for PV installation capacities in recent years, in line with the continuous decline in PV power costs, as a result of which many countries have ended subsidiaries for PV power, having PV power compete with other energies in open biddings for public power projects in a fair manner. PV power investors have gained growing numbers of contracts via such method. Wood Mackenzie predicts that the median rate for winning PV power bids worldwide would drop to around US$0.02 per kilowatt/hour by 2022, at a speed of reduction sharper than that of installation cost, which Wood Mackenzie believes, though, would catch up soon.
It is forecast that North America and Europe will boast 28% global market share by 2023, the largest, followed by China, Japan, and India with 20%. Impacted by new energy policy of China, demands on the global PV power market plunged in Q3 but China and Japan will still account for half of installation capacities worldwide in the next two years, despite slowdown in the installation speed. The Middle East market will expand by leaps and bounds, with its global share forecast to reach 9%, up from 3% now, by 2023, compared with 7% of Latin America. In general, the global market will become more diversified, a healthy development.
Thanks to a rush of price cuts, winning bids at US$0.02 per kilowatt/hour for PV power projects will be commonplace, especially in developing countries with sunny weather and policy support. By 2022, rates of the winning bids may even drop to US$0.014, or NT$0.43.
Reference
- By 2023, the World Will Have 1 Trillion Watts of Installed Solar PV Capacity
- Global Solar Demand Monitor: Q2 2018
(Collaborative media: TechNews, first photo courtesy of Activ Solar via FlickrCC BY 2.0)
