TrendForce and Taipei Computer Association (TCA) will be hosting “TrendForce Compuforum” at Computex 2014 in Room 504 at Nanagang Exhibition Hall on June 5, 2014. The event will assemble the company’s four research divisions DRAMeXchange, WitsView, LEDinside and EnergyTrend for the first time. Guest speakers from well-known international manufacturers including SanDisk, ARM, Qualcomm and Synaptics will gather at the event to discuss the latest technology and market trends in 2014. Below is the summarized content:
EnergyTrend: Consumer Battery Output to Grow More Than 8% in 2014, Showing Positive Overall Industry Development
Following in the electronic industry hardware upgrades coupled with telecommunication advances that has transformed mobile devices from early NBs to tablets, smartphones, to now wearable devices; the battery industry development has gradually evolved from cylindrical battery to polymer and thin film batteries. In terms of battery market output value, while electronic component prices declined at least 10% annually, battery price cuts have continued to lag behind demand growth. “Consumer battery output can still grow by more than 8% in 2014, which shows an overall positive industry development,” said Duff Lu, research manager of EnergyTrend.
“Batteries in the future NB market will focus on high-capacity to meet ultra-thin product trends,” noted Lu. “Although, a new SoC module with higher energy efficiency has been installed in smartphones, demands to prolong battery life continues due to users longer periods of internet surfing and general usage. Moreover, accompanying various wearable devices with motion sensors, these batteries can be applied in consumer and industrial products, thus generating a new wave of demands within the battery industry.”
DRAMeXchange: DRAM Manufacturers Improve Profits with Diverse Product Portfolio, Promising Prospects in the Years Ahead
The DRAM industry showed a strong recovery in 2013 following the consolidation of the market and is poised to become more profitable with the support of the industry’s top three manufacturers. Looking at 2014, DRAMeXchange Assistant Vice President Avril Wu projects the entire industry output value will grow 33% YoY to approximately US $45.9 billion. Industry profits are anticipated to increase in both 2014 and 2015 as the average industry prices stabilize under restrained supply growth and as manufacturers cut down overall spending. With regards to technological advances, given that an increasing number of manufacturers are beginning to push towards 20nm manufacturing process, the annual bit growth for the DRAM industry could arrive to as much as 27% in 2014. The industry’s transformation into an oligopoly, essentially, has brought orders to the supplier market, and makes profitability as the industry priority.
Armed with its power saving feature, Mobile DRAM managed to penetrate both the individual PC and Server markets, and could eventually be equipped in wearable computers. According to Wu, Mobile DRAM will account for more than 30% of the DRAM industry’s revenues by the end of 2014, effectively replacing PC DRAM as the mainstream product. The next generation LPDDR4 is currently still in the testing phase. However, by using advanced 2xnm processes and integrated into 8Gb chips, the LPDDR4 will become a widely used solution for flagship devices by 2015. As the Mobile DRAM market’s oligopoly is more obvious than other DRAM products, in the long term its prices are expected to remain stable and allow for further profits.
DRAMeXchange: NAND Flash Industry Development Continues to Improve due to Mobile Device Growth
Aside from growing smartphones and tablets shipments, cloud-computing has also spurred SSD server and enterprise applications that will further diversify NAND Flash industry developments in 2014. Even though the industry faced oversupply during off-peak quarters, DRAMeXchange's Assistant Vice President, Sean Yang, believes that the market can still reach a potential supply and demand balance with NAND Flash manufacturers continuing production output regulations, and as demand in the market grows during the peak quarters. For 2014, NAND Flash industry value is estimated to rise by 5% YoY to US $25.2 billion, while demand bit growth is set to approach 40%.
On the other hand, the shipment momentum of smartphones, tablets, and relevant mobile devices will continue to play a crucial role in stimulating demand for mobile solutions such as eMMC and eMCP. In 2014, the consumption of eMMC, eMCP, and other Mobile NAND that are being utilized will reach an estimated 25%, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is expected to reach close to 60%. As eMMC becomes more affordable and with growing number of mainstream manufacturers opting to support the format, eMMC solutions might eventually extend from mainstream mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets into other types of consumer electronic products. This year eMMC will not only be applied in Google’s highly promoted Chromebook, but also in other popular wearable devices. The increasing use of NAND Flash components in novel mobile devices is anticipated to benefit the entire industry's development in the long term, projected DRAMeXchange.
WitsView: Oversupply and Diverging Technologies Fuel on Touch Module Price Wars
Intuitive touch-based operations significantly contributed to the popularization of mobile devices, but development in the touch module market has far been smooth. Touch module specs have reached maturity in smartphone and tablets. Panel makers continue to release touch module integrated In-cell and On-cell panel products to further accelerate market competition, and has intensified price wars.
“While Microsoft’s certification system has relatively high standards for NB touch technology, Windows OS was unable to fully take advantage of integrated touch technology,” said WitsView Senior Research Director Eric Chiou. “In addition, the recent NB market is concentrated on entry-level models with retail prices set at US $249. Consequently, touch NB penetration rates remain at 16% in 2014, and touch module oversupply situation cannot be resolved in the short-term.”
“As for the highly-anticipated wearable devices, due to the small display area and unclear level of market acceptance, this segment will have very limited contributions to the touch module industry,” Chiou added. “However, wearable devices are likely to be the first to apply curved and flexible displays and have an opportunity to spear head touch technology development.”
LEDinside: LEDs Creates Added Value for Smartphones, Flash LED Revenue to Reach US $759 million by 2018
In the past, LED application in cell phones has been minimal, mainly limited to displays and keyboard backlighting. However, the rise of smartphones has led to growing consumer demands for new features including larger displays and higher resolutions. These new capabilities require more LEDs to increase backlight modules brightness. Pixels are used to enhance camera modules and flash LEDs added to provide brighter flash lights, with some smartphone manufactures even using dual-LED flash.
In 2013, the total flash LED shipment volume was 1.03 billion pieces and is estimated to increase substantially by 98.5 percent to 2.04 billion by 2018, said LEDinside Assistant Research Manager Jack Kuo. Overall revenue is also anticipated to grow from US $561 million in 2013 to US $759 million by 2018. Special new features added to smartphones all rely on LEDs, including remote control, heart beat monitor, and environmental sensing system. It is clear that LEDs play a critical role in smartphone development.
