BP (British Petroleum) has released the “Energy Outlook 2030” which offers their predictions of future energy trends, factors and influence from 2011 to 2035. In this outlook, BP predicts that electricity generated by renewable ways may exceed over nuclear power since 2025.
BP analyzed OECD and non-OECD respectively. As the population and GDP of Non-OECD countries are likely to grow faster than OECD ones, it’s a market worthy of paying more attention. The Outlook shows global energy demand continues to increase at an average of 1.5% a year to 2035. Amount this growth, it is expected that around 95% would come from non-OECD economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase. By 2035, energy use in the non-OECD economies is expected to be 69% higher than in 2012 while the consumption in the OECD will have grown by only 5%.
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| Shares of world primary energy |
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| Primary inputs to Power |
(Source: BP)
According to the Outlook, the worldwide energy consumption may grow by 1.6% per year from 2011 to 2030, adding totally 36% to global consumption. Due to the fact that the world population may reach 8.3 billion and world income may also double the 2011 level by 2030, the emerging economies would drive higher demands to primary energy includes oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric and renewable energy.
Renewable energy is expected to be the power source that grows fastest from now to 2035. As BP predicts, power generated by renewable ways will increase at an average of 6.4% a year, which will increase higher than any other kind. Including biofuel, renewable energy is likely to exceed over nuclear power by 2025 and share 14% of all electricity by 2035. In non-OECD especially, renewable energy may share as much as 45%.
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