Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 40/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 38/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
•Supply and Demand Dynamics: In the current month, the production of polysilicon is around 92,000 tons, a decrease of about 7% month-on-month. Most manufacturers continue with production cutback strategies to maintain prices. The focus is on major manufacturers, and there is no urgent intention to ramp up production among most manufacturers, which keeps the overall polysilicon output in a low-range operation. In addition, downstream wafer manufacturers have increased production to continue digesting the polysilicon inventory.
•Transaction Status: The current focus is on fulfilling prior orders, while a new round of signing orders have not yet started. A few manufacturers have raised prices, but mid-to-small-sized manufacturers are cautious due to concerns over shipments and have not followed suit. Currently, widespread price increases depend on whether downstream players can successfully pass the cost increases onto customers.
•Price Trend: Prices have stabilized this week. In conclusion, low polysilicon production and recovering market demand are necessary conditions for achieving a price increase in polysilicon next month.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.18/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.28/Pc.
•Inventory Dynamics: Due to production increases from some manufacturers, wafer inventory has slightly accumulated, but the whole inventory remains at a healthy level. There are reports that some overproducing manufacturers have been warned in self-discipline meetings to keep production within set targets. That can help this sector to maintain a balanced supply-demand ratio for wafers and avoid excessive inventory pressure.
•Supply Dynamics: Wafer supply is in the range of 48-49 GW this month, with both specialized and integrated manufacturers increasing production to varying degrees. The ongoing recovery of profits is stimulating wafer manufacturers to ramp up production.
•Price Trend: The N-type 210R wafer saw price pressure and a decline this week, as downstream production for this specification decreased, leading to a reversal in the supply-demand relationship. Prices dropped by 3% to 1.28 RMB per piece, with some smaller manufacturers quoting even lower prices.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.330/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.270/W.
•Supply and Demand Dynamics: The production of solar cells is around 43-44 GW this month, slightly down from last month. The demand for P-type cells is strong in the Indian market, and since P-type capacity was largely cleared out last year, its supply becomes tight. This week, P-type 182mm cell prices increased by 22% to 0.33 RMB/W. On the other side, other cell specifications saw weaker demand due to the off-season, with less price support.
•Price Trend: Aside from the sharp rise in 182mm P-type cell prices, other prices remained stable. If the “New 531” policy effectively stimulates the market demand, there is potential for a strong recovery in cell demand.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.
•Supply Dynamics: Production schedules are differentiated this month, with some manufacturers increasing output during the off-season due to higher order demand, but overall production decreased slightly by 3% to around 42 GW. On the demand side:
(1) Domestic (China): The “Renewable Energy Grid Access Marketization Reform” policy released on February 9th may encourage projects to rush to install before June 1st to ensure returns. That could potentially drive a surge in installations in Q2, resulting in higher demand for modules.
(2) Europe: The inventory of modules being sold off by distributors in Q4 is widely circulating in the market, exerting downward pressure on prices.
(3) India: Solar cells will be included in the ALMM list by 2026. Given the local supply gap for solar cells, India’s demand for modules has been strong recently. But compounded by changes in China’s export tax rebate, there will be an increase in module costs.
(4) U.S.: Module prices have risen mainly due to manufacturers passing on the costs from AD/CVD tariffs in Southeast Asia. It is estimated that the cost increase from anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures is about 0.03-0.05 USD/W, assuming the solar cells are within the TQR list.
•Price Trend: Module prices remained stable this week. The price range for bifacial M10 TOPCon modules from major manufacturers is 0.63-0.70 RMB/W. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, mainstream manufacturers’ prices are in the 0.65-0.80 RMB/W range. Driven by policy demand and the peak season starting in some overseas markets, the likelihood of price increases in Q2 is higher.