Starting in Q3, domestic photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturers did not see significant capacity expansions, and the growth rate of new orders slowed. New orders this year reached approximately RMB 8 billion. In the first half of the year, major players such as Tongwei, Jinko, and several others placed orders for new TOPCon lines and PERC-to-TOPCon upgrades. For the full year, the industry is expected to see nearly 200 new and upgraded TOPCon orders. By the end of this year, TOPCon capacity across the industry is estimated to reach around 800 GW. Currently, domestic companies are more focused on subsequent upgrades to TOPCon.
Future Upgrades: Edge Passivation and Bifacial Poly
Leading firms are working on cost-effective TOPCon solutions and improving conversion efficiency. Some downstream companies have started adopting edge passivation technology, which, along with bifacial poly, is undergoing pilot testing at top companies. Edge passivation is even being introduced to mass production lines. A leading company recently achieved 670W power output with a TOPCon module using edge passivation and bifacial poly—on par with the best heterojunction (HJT) modules available. These upgrades represent the clear direction for TOPCon’s technological evolution, with equipment for edge passivation and bifacial poly already prepared and tested by several leading customers.
TOPCon Integrating with BC and Tandem Technologies
Downstream companies are also exploring new technologies, such as combining BC (Back Contact) with TOPCon to develop TBC, as well as advancing HJT technology. However, no clear plans for mass production on these paths have been observed, as downstream players are still heavily focused on TOPCon to recoup their investments. The focus remains on advancing TOPCon’s profitability. Combining TOPCon with new technologies, especially BC, appears more likely in the near future, which may limit opportunities for HJT adoption.
Challenges with BC: Yield and Cost
BC technology faces challenges in yield rates, which are currently lower than those of TOPCon and HJT. Complete BC production lines, including TBC, are available, and a pilot line has been deployed with a downstream customer. However, reducing BC equipment costs remains a key focus, as its investment cost is more than double that of TOPCon, posing a significant barrier to large-scale commercialization.
Perovskite: A Promising Future
In the long term, perovskite technology holds significant potential. Some major panel manufacturers have already adopted perovskite, with core equipment supplied by leading equipment manufacturers. Though the current base is small, rapid annual growth is expected as non-PV companies enter the perovskite sector. The market potential for perovskite is considered far greater than that of crystalline silicon technologies. While there are currently around 100 entities working on perovskite, most are small-scale players, including research institutes and universities.
Overseas Orders: Higher Margins and Prepayment Rates
The overseas market is a major focus for equipment manufacturers, with strong expansion intentions in regions such as India, Indonesia, the Middle East, and the United States. TOPCon dominates the technological landscape, followed by PERC and HJT (mainly in the U.S.). Overseas projects tend to involve complete production lines, providing higher order value. The prepayment ratio and profit margins for overseas projects are also better than domestic ones. For instance, orders from regions like Southeast Asia and India are valued at 1.2–1.5 times domestic levels, while U.S. orders are over twice as valuable.
Overseas Expansion: Regional Dynamics and Partners
India, Indonesia, and the Middle East are experiencing rapid expansion. In the U.S., the timeline is longer due to extended construction periods for facilities. Chinese companies are also investing in joint ventures or standalone factories in regions like Indonesia and the Middle East.
Q3 Financial Recovery and Risk Management
In Q3, some downstream customers secured renewed loans, easing financial pressures and improving acceptance and payment collection. As of now, major customers account for about 90% of outstanding receivables, while small and cross-industry enterprises represent only 10%, keeping repayment risks manageable. Inventory has been sufficiently reduced, and no new customer bankruptcies were reported in September–November.
Winter Strategy: Expand Overseas and Preserve Cash
The industry remains cautiously optimistic about the next two years, anticipating a wave of new technology adoption and demand growth. Current strategies focus on controlling costs, advancing R&D, and expanding into new markets. Overseas growth is expected to offset domestic stagnation, paving the way for future growth driven by technological transitions.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IW_LBsaUhJ1yWTWLMlfEgQ