On October 25, 2024, Sierbang launched a new tubular EVA production unit with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons, raising the total EVA market capacity to 2.9 million tons. The unit is currently undergoing trial production of LDPE, with plans to switch to EVA production by November 20. With the rapid expansion of EVA production capacity, an oversupply scenario may arise in 2025, potentially strengthening the bargaining power and influence of film manufacturers.
In 2023, domestic photovoltaic (PV) EVA production accelerated, reaching 815,800 tons—an increase of 101.42% year-on-year. As PV production technology advances and production barriers decrease, EVA output is expected to continue rising. From 2023 to 2024, with the launch of 300,000 tons of new capacity in Gulei and 250,000 tons in Baofeng, PV EVA production is projected to keep growing. High overseas EVA prices and long shipping times have led to reduced imports and a rapid decline in import dependency. By the end of 2024, domestic PV EVA production is expected to reach 1.1 million tons.
As of October 25, 2024, Sierbang’s additional 200,000-ton tubular EVA unit has raised the total EVA production capacity to 2.9 million tons. The unit is currently in the trial phase for LDPE production, with EVA production expected to start by November 20. Presently, inventories across all PV EVA segments are low, and film manufacturers are in their purchasing cycle, likely driving short-term price increases. However, as module production slows and demand for film and granules declines, along with increasing supply, long-term prices may drop sharply.
In 2025, EVA capacity is expected to grow by an additional 1.14 million tons, with the recent 200,000-ton Sierbang unit’s full transition to EVA production contributing to an overall increase of 49.63%. Production barriers are breaking down further, and both capacity and output are increasing. While module production is expected to grow by only 10.1% in 2025 and installations may drop by 6.25% year-on-year, there is limited growth in raw material demand, creating a mismatch with EVA’s rapid capacity expansion. Oversupply will likely intensify competition, driving EVA prices downward. Consequently, film manufacturers are expected to gain greater leverage in selection and price negotiations.
Source：SMM