Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest report on the future development of the clean energy manufacturing industry. The report said that the global combined market size of photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, batteries, electrolyzers and heat pumps will increase from US$700 billion in 2023 to more than US$2 trillion in 2035.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global solar panel production capacity will exceed 1.5TW by 2035. Its latest report, Energy Technology Outlook 2024, covers the solar, wind turbine, electric vehicle, battery, electrolyzer and heat pump industries.
The report uses scenarios such as the Stated Policies Model (STEPS), which reflects the current policy situation, and the Announced Pledge Model (APS), which assumes governments achieve their climate targets, to predict the potential growth of these technologies.
According to the STEPS scenario, global solar module production capacity will reach 1,546 GW by 2035, while under the APS scenario, capacity will increase to 1,695 GW. In 2023, global production capacity is 1,115 GW.
The IEA said China is expected to maintain its lead in solar production, but its global market share may decline slightly as manufacturing expands elsewhere and incentives drive growth.
According to the STEPS plan, by 2030, the production capacity of solar panels in the United States is expected to reach 90GW, and under the APS plan, it will increase to slightly more than 100GW. The IEA said that by 2035, the United States will almost completely localize solar panels and polysilicon, while solar silicon wafers and cells will still rely on imports.
The International Energy Agency said that under STEPS, India's solar panel production capacity could reach about 80GW, while under APS, it would increase to about 120GW. In the EU, the APS scheme will support the goal of meeting 40% of demand through domestic production.
The report said that in the long run, differences in the cost base of global manufacturing markets are likely to become increasingly important. The IEA said this could give regions with lower energy prices, such as China, India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, a strong competitive advantage.
The report predicts that under the STEPS standard, global demand for solar panels will grow from 460 GW in 2023 to 674 GW in 2035, with an average annual growth rate of 3%. It will reach 724 GW by 2050. According to the APS plan, global demand for solar panels is expected to reach 860 GW by 2035 and 894 GW by 2050.
According to the forecast, China will continue to be the main growth driver of global industry demand, with demand reaching about 415GW in 2035 under both the STEPS and APS models. India and other emerging markets and developing economies (EDMEs) will continue to grow their global market share in both cases, reaching nearly 25% and 35% in 2050 under the STEPS and APS scenarios, respectively.
The IEA said average investment in the PV supply chain will fall in the coming years, from more than $80 billion in 2023 to around $10 billion in 2024-2030, and even lower in 2031-2035. The organization said the expected decline in investment is due to "current production capacity being sufficient to meet most deployment needs," adding that China, the United States, India and the European Union will need the most investment.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mEnF7G_NDMsfEw6L9LkSKg