Last week, in Chinese market wafers faced some downward pricing pressure, with some companies increasing their sales efforts, leading to difficulties in holding prices. The market has entered a new round of competition as downstream demand fell short of expectations, causing leading wafer companies to face significant inventory pressure and reducing their willingness to purchase polysilicon. After the National Day holiday, demand for polysilicon remained weak. Based on market conditions in both the wafer and module segments, the market has not shown significant improvement as the fourth quarter progresses, raising concerns about the market outlook. As a result, the support for production cuts is gradually weakening, and companies’ patience is being tested.
According to data from the National Energy Administration (NEA), by the end of September, the country's solar power installed capacity reached 770 GW, accounting for 24.37% of the total installed power capacity, an increase of 3.59 percentage points compared to the end of 2023. In September, the net increase in solar power installed capacity was 17.65 GW, representing a month-on-month growth of 5.18% compared to August. However, overall growth was quite limited, and the anticipated peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" did not materialize.
Last week, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) calculated and released the taxed cost for N-type M10 bifacial photovoltaic modules in October, which stood at RMB 0.68/W. The CPIA urged companies not to engage in sales or bidding below cost, emphasizing that bidding below cost could violate the "Tendering and Bidding Law of the People's Republic of China." This statement attracted market attention. Module prices continued to fall last week, with the lowest price for N-type modules in prior collective procurements reaching as low as RMB 0.622/W. In the short term, module competition remains intense. Digital energy platform DataBM.com believes the CPIA's appeal has positive significance, but the market still awaits changes in production capacity and improvements in demand.
In polysilicon production, output saw a slight increase, and production cuts have not intensified. As silicon wafer prices continue to weaken, if further production cuts are not implemented, polysilicon prices may remain weak and stable.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/017NQgWM4I6vFv1M0rDCrQ