Recently, the price of lithium carbonate, which has been falling for many days, has suddenly started to rise.
On August 30, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,000 CNY from the previous day, with an average price of 75,500 CNY/ton; the main futures contracts rose across the board, and some contracts quoted more than 80,000 CNY/ton.
In terms of futures, the industry believes that the price increase is mainly due to the fact that the fundamental negative factors have been exhausted after the previous price fell to a low level, so the sentiment has improved.
In terms of spot market, the rise in lithium carbonate prices may be due to the upcoming peak season in the terminal market, which is transmitted to the midstream. Material factories and battery cell factories are currently in the peak season stocking stage, and production schedules have increased.
However, for most of the first half of 2024, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fluctuated around 100,000 CNY/ton, breaking through the price limit to a new low in recent years only for a few months.
In less than half a year since March this year, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen by more than 30%.
In terms of supply, since mid-April this year, weekly lithium carbonate inventories have entered a state of rapid accumulation. The current inventory pressure is still heavy, and the overall trend is still in the process of fluctuating and finding a bottom. At the same time, the import volume of lithium carbonate has increased month-on-month. Data shows that the domestic import volume of lithium carbonate in July was about 24,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23%, and the average import price was US$11,042 per ton.
In terms of demand, the current weekly operating rate of ternary materials remains at about 40%, and battery cell companies are scheduling production upward. Institutions predict that the demand for lithium carbonate will be close to 1 million tons in 2024, but the output will exceed 1.1 million tons, and the surplus will remain at around 120,000 tons.
Therefore, despite the obvious rebound in lithium prices, the supply and inventory benefits are limited, and downstream demand has not shown strong signs of recovery. In the current market environment of oversupply, it is difficult for lithium carbonate prices to rebound and it is expected to remain weak.
It is worth mentioning that judging from the recent performance reports disclosed by companies, some lithium companies have been making efforts to deploy lithium resources during the downward price cycle.
For example, Ganfeng Lithium increased its stake in Mali Lithium to acquire the management rights of the Goulamina spodumene mine project, and Pilbara announced the acquisition of Latin Resources in full to gain control of the Salinas lithium mine project in Brazil.
Integration has also become an important way for companies to reduce costs and expand profit margins.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0sUU9TEROLfhnPqJvNRWlg