Recently, Israel's Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure presented a roadmap for net-zero emissions by 2050. Israel's electricity demand is expected to grow to about 19.2 million tons of oil equivalent (about 220 terawatt-hours) per year by 2050, more than three times the current electricity demand. The growth in electricity demand will accelerate in the coming years due to the electrification of transportation and industry. By 2050, total energy demand is also expected to grow by a factor of 1.5.
The plan envisions three scenarios for achieving this goal, the choice of which will depend on technological and policy developments. Realization of the first option would require photovoltaics to become cheaper and more efficient. The second scenario would require hydrogen production to mature. The third scenario would require the state to allow the operation of nuclear power plants.
Yellow Scenario
According to this plan, by 2050, 64% of Israel's energy needs will be provided by photovoltaic power plants. Under this scenario, , the country would have 108 GW of PV capacity and 70 GW of four-hour energy storage capacity. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is $91.5/MWh.
Israel's Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure explains,“This scenario deploys a high percentage of photovoltaics, based on the assumption of rapid technological development in the field of photovoltaics and energy storage, which reduces prices and increases efficiency.”“In addition, it is based on the assumption of technological solutions for integrating PV energy into the grid, as well as the promotion of further solutions such as photovoltaic on water (FPV) and agricultural PV.”
Blue Scenario
The second scenario, called the“Blue Scenario”, foresees that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen from natural gas account for 30% of total energy, while photovoltaics accounts for 45% and imports for 25%. In this scenario, electricity production would be based on 56% PV, 38% hydrogen and 6% imports. The scenario would include 75GW of installed PV, 4 hours of 34GW of energy storage, and an LCOE of $105.6/MWh. “This scenario will require significant infrastructure investment, and will only be possible when hydrogen production becomes more efficient and economically viable.”
Red Scenario
The last “red scenario” is based on the introduction of nuclear energy into the Israeli grid. In this scenario, photovoltaics would account for 55% of all energy sources, nuclear energy for 19%, and imports for 26%. In electricity production, PV would account for 57%, hydrogen and nuclear 19% each. This would require 80 GW of installed PV and 50 GW of four-hour storage capacity. In this case, the LCOE is projected to be $96.50/MWh.
“This scenario is based on the assumption that by 2050 Israel will have two large nuclear power plants or several smaller ones,” Israel's Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure said. “This scenario depends on the technological development of modular nuclear reactors, international policy issues, and an in-depth public discussion on the implementation of such technology.”
Previously, Israel made an international commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85 percent by 2050. And this time, the proposed roadmap went through a public hearing process before the government could adopt it.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dXLSJcbOTktt4LBfjRWw7g