Granular silicon
The cost advantage of granular silicon is highlighted, and the market share is expected to further increase. GCL Technology's market share of granular silicon will reach 17.3% in 2023, an increase of nearly 10% compared with 2022. The annual cost of 2023 will drop by about 27%, of which the Baotou base has been as low as 35.9 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The quality of granular silicon continues to improve, and the layout of overseas production capacity accelerates. In 2023, GCL raised the total metal impurities to 18 elements, thus the product quality will meet the semiconductor-grade standard. The proportion of GCL granular silicon 901A products that can be applied to N-type products exceeded 90%. In 2024, with the continuous optimization of turbidity and the solution of the problem of wire breakage rate, the market share of granular silicon is expected to be further increased. At the same time, with its cost advantage, GCL Technology took the lead in opening the production capacity layout in the Middle East.
BC Technology
The leader leads the technological change and accelerates the expansion of BC production capacity. LONGi is expected to achieve 70GW of HPBC production capacity by the end of 2025. LONGi launched HPBC2.0 technology, with a mass production efficiency of 26.6% and a power of up to 660W at the module end. The silver paste, equipment, yield and other links that restrict cost reduction are expected to continue to be optimized and improved from the second half of 2024 to 2025. It is expected that the cost will be equal to TOPCon in 2025.
The leader launched ground power station products to accelerate the process of cost reduction. LONGi's HPBC2.0 technology is the first to launch ground power station products, which is expected to match the cost of TOPCon with the efficiency advantage. Aiko has adopted the ABC technology with extreme efficiency to create leading products such as black holes and white holes.
HJT
At present, the efficiency and empirical performance of HJT module products are better than those of TOPCon, and it is very important to reduce costs in 2024. The cost reduction and efficiency increase of heterojunction mainly focus on silicon wafers, targets, and metallization. In 2024, HJT silicon wafer thinning will continue, and mass production is expected to approach 110 microns in 2024. Various companies are actively exploring indium-free and low-indium targets, and related products are expected to continue to be optimized in the pilot line. In terms of metallization, NBB technology is expected to be gradually introduced into mass production lines in 2024. In terms of silver-clad copper, it is expected that by the end of 2024, 30% silver content slurry is expected to be introduced. The optimization of the copper electroplating pilot line continues, and the difficulties in mass production such as equipment stability, supporting auxiliary materials (inks), and yield have been overcome one after another, and the data of the pilot line is expected to be further improved in 2024. Mass production is expected to begin in 2024. At the same time, companies are accelerating the introduction of 0BB technology, which is expected to accelerate the reduction of silver paste costs and promote the cost to level TOPCon.
Perovskite
Under the leadership of domestic enterprises, the industrialization of module end + equipment end continues to advance. The first GW-level perovskite production line has officially started construction and is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2024.