According to a new analysis by the Clean Energy Association (CEA), U.S. new anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) tariffs could lead to an increase in the cost of solar cells and modules “to a level that would severely limit the supply and installation of solar energy in the United States.”
The report, commissioned by the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), found that potential new anti-dumping/countervailing duties could raise the price of U.S.-made solar modules by $0.10 per watt and imported modules by $0.15 per watt, which would “significantly affect” the economics of solar projects.
The report also found that the tariffs could affect the build-out of domestic solar supply in the US, as module assembly plants will need to rely on imported cells, which will be subject to AD/CVD tariffs.
For the time being, cell capacity lags far behind module capacity in the U.S. The CEA said the U.S. is “likely” to have 60GW of solar module capacity by 2030, including thin-film capacity from First Solar, and only about 12GW of cell capacity.
Tariff Retroactivity and Installed Volume
Earlier this year, both the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) and the International Trade Commission (ITC) confirmed that they would continue their AD/CVD investigations into imports of solar cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The investigation involves silicon solar cells and aims to determine whether they are included in modules.
The request for an investigation was made by a coalition of U.S. solar manufacturers under the name of the U.S. Solar Manufacturing Trade Council.
In an online presentation releasing the study, Christian Roselund, senior policy analyst at the Clean Energy Association (CEA), said the uncertainty over anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) tariffs has the potential to create problems for the U.S. market.
At the time of implementation, the tariffs were agnostic,” he said. You won't know how much you actually owe until the administrative review three years later. This is because the tariffs are imposed retrospectively, so companies importing components don't know how much they will end up owing.” The CEA added that the tariffs are expected to be applied retroactively until mid-June if a positive conclusion is reached.
Roselund said that during the last anti-dumping and countervailing complaint filed by Auxin Solar, module supply was reduced and prices rose sharply.
He added: “The end result is that projects are canceled and delayed. That means lower levels of installation, which makes it harder for the U.S. to meet its climate goals. Ultimately, it means higher energy costs; if we're paying more for solar, eventually those costs will be passed on to consumers.”
CEA predicted that the new AD/CVD tariffs on solar modules could “exacerbate existing solar installation disadvantages” and reduce future installations.
The association said, “The risks associated with such incalculable tariffs make it more difficult and expensive to finance PV projects and manufacturing plants, which could lead to project cancellations by developers and manufacturers. The result could be a shift in supply to products not subject to AD/CVD orders, the loss of U.S. PV module manufacturing jobs, and a decline in PV installations if other sources of supply are expensive.”
Competing with Southeast Asiav
Through IRA tax credits, U.S. module manufacturers can now compete with imports from Southeast Asia, said Daniel Shreve, vice president of market intelligence at CEA.
However, CEA said that U.S. module manufacturers have no choice but to rely on imported cells given their rising prices, and that an increase in AD/CVD tariffs would actually make that more difficult in the short term.
“Module manufacturers need cells, and they need affordable cells,” Shreve said.CEA's report predicts that installation of new module capacity in the U.S. will begin to slow in 2027, followed by a reduction in new cell capacity in 2028, as the window for benefiting from the 45X tax credit begins to narrow.
The agency said that the cost of establishing a cell production plant can be two to three times higher than a module assembly plant. Combined with uncertainty about U.S. subsidies for localization and support for local cell production, intellectual property barriers to cell technology, and increased construction time for cell plants, the pure business case for cell expansion in the U.S. tends to be less smooth and positive than for component assembly.
This means that the U.S. relies heavily on imported cells and will likely continue to do so. Most of these cells currently come from the four countries under investigation. It remains to be seen whether manufacturers will turn to other regions, such as India.
This contrasts with the views expressed in a recent petition against anti-dumping and countervailing measures that emphasized the adverse impact of Southeast Asian imports on U.S. manufacturers. According to the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America (SEMA), “U.S. solar manufacturers are in an untenable situation where Chinese subsidiaries in Southeast Asia are exporting solar products to the U.S. market at below-cost prices. ” .
Notably, the most prominent companies that filed AD/CVD petitions with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC have been or will be partially freed from their dependence on imported cells.First Solar, a cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film producer, is not dependent on cell imports.
Qcells and Meyer Burger are both adding or building new cell capacity in the U.S.; REC Silicon produces polysilicon, which is located upstream of cell capacity.
The U.S. is expected to issue a preliminary countervailing duty ruling in the near future in 2024, while a preliminary antidumping duty ruling is expected to be issued on or about October 1, 2024, respectively.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fsSw08_MdPXWdCSSIoAE6Q