Polysilicon prices remained stable this week. The transaction price range of n-type rod silicon was 38,000-42,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 40,000 yuan/ton. The transaction price range of monocrystalline dense material was 33,000-36,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 34,300 yuan/ton. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 36,000-37,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 36,500 yuan/ton. According to the analysis of the transaction situation, the transaction price range of n-type rod silicon is basically stable, and the price of mixed packaging may have a floating space of 0.1-0.2 thousand yuan/ton. Polysilicon prices are now nearing the bottom, and the possibility of another price drop in the near term is weak.
This week, 4 companies have transactions for n-type rod silicon, and 2 companies for p-type rod silicon. The number of orders signed this week is nearly to that of last week, with most of them mainly small orders. Some first-tier companies have signed orders for this month so far. At present, the cash flow situation of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is generally tight, and downstream enterprises are still mainly engaged in on-demand procurement due to the lack of willingness to stock up due to potential capital occupation problems. Affected by market conditions, first-tier companies are expected to strengthen production cuts in the near future. The resumption of production of shutdown and maintenance enterprises is not as expected, so it is speculated that polysilicon production is expected to further decline by 10%-15% this month.
The reasons for the re-flattening of wafer prices this week are as follows. On the demand side, wafer prices have recently increased slightly, but the support for polysilicon prices has been limited due to rising wafer prices. At present, the price of downstream cells is still declining, and the inventory of some major wafer manufacturers has not been increased for the time being, so the short-term price fluctuations are a temporary tension between market supply and demand. The entire photovoltaic industry chain is still in a downward range. At present, polysilicon prices are stable in the short term, mainly because the price has reached the psychological limit of manufacturers, and the transaction price has also been preliminarily matched with the downstream psychological expectations.
As of this week, the number of domestic polysilicon companies in production is 19, and the number of polysilicon companies under maintenance is 14. In summary, polysilicon shipments improved this month, inventory growth slowed down, polysilicon supply is expected to be further lowered in July, and polysilicon prices will remain stable in the short term.
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R-gENEGWwuiDKB3rWn1LYQ