In the first four months of 2024, Europe imported about 33GW of solar PV modules from China, accounting for 43% of China's total module exports, according to Clean Energy Associates (CEA), a US-based clean energy consultancy.
Its PV Supply, Technology, and Policy Report (Q2 - 2024) examines the market landscape for supply and policy in Europe and the United States, the global silicon supply chain and technology trends.
European import statistics are consistent with CEA's observation that "European PV supply is shrinking as many longtime suppliers are shutting down production or filing for bankruptcy because they cannot compete with imports."
Companies such as cell and module maker Meyer Burger, Norwegian ingot producer NorSun and polysilicon producer REC have all suspended or abandoned their European plants in the past 12 months due to unsustainable market conditions.
In assessing European policies to support solar manufacturing, CEA is more cautious in its evaluation. It identifies three policies that could support solar production: the Forced Labour regulation, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), and the Critical Raw Materials Act.
The NZIA, which came into effect in late June, aims to reach 30GW of PV manufacturing capacity across the value chain.The CEA says: "This regulation will create easier investment conditions for manufacturers, but its overall impact is reduced by the fact that there are no financial incentives for any of the technologies."
It went on to say that if the EU wants to compete with supply chains from China or Southeast Asia, it will need "a large-scale financial support program similar to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)," "but at this time, this has not been implied or anticipated."
NZIA includes "non-price standard" provisions in public auctions that would support EU-made solar products, but lacks direct funding on an IRA scale.
The Forced Labour regulation will not come into force until 2027, by which time, the CEA said, suppliers will have "sufficient time to assess their supply chains and ensure that they are complying with the regulation." The regulation also places the "burden of proof" on the European Commission rather than external importers, which could create difficulties in terms of supply chain visibility.
Advocates say the burden of proof must be reversed if supply chain visibility laws are to be successfully implemented.
The report also presents information on the expansion of China's top seven PV module producers, about 40 percent of which (according to this year's statistics) will be shipped to Europe.
There is no doubt that JinkoSolar, LONGi, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Tongwei, Canadian Solar and Astronergy will see an increase in shipments in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching a total of 525GW according to CEA's estimates.
CEA also said that global module and cell capacity will expand by more than 300GW each this year, in addition to about 600GW of new polysilicon capacity.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ka_0uWlO76TIvz6m4YyIOw