In 2024, the existing battery capacity in the United States/Europe is planned to be 968/1843GWh, compared with the global battery production of 940GWh and China's export of 150GWh in 2023. In 2024, the overseas production capacity of China's lithium battery industry chain will exceed 500GWh, with a cumulative investment of more than 32 billion US dollars. The investment in midstream battery manufacturing will reach 22.4 billion US dollars (2023), accounting for 79% of the total investment in electric vehicles.
The journey of domestic lithium battery companies to go overseas: low-cost > FTA country production + Chinese technology - > the global market. In the early stage, Hungary and Turkey were the main overseas destinations (Hungary has a planned production capacity of more than 215GWh in 2024). Then successively opened the production capacity layout of the United States, Japan, Southeast Asia, Germany and Spain (90/20/10/50GWh in 2024 is expected to be 90/20/10/50GWh respectively). In recent years, Southeast Asia, Central and South America, the Middle East and North Africa have gradually evolved into new hot spots for factory construction due to the outstanding dividends of new energy policies and population resources.
The main track is booming: the demand for large reserves is strong, and the momentum remains high
Total: According to ABIA, the output and sales volume of China's power & other batteries from January to April 2024 increased by 41%/36% year-on-year, with a scale of 263/233GWh respectively. According to SNE Research, the global installed capacity of power batteries from January to April 2024 was 215GWh, +22% year-on-year. We previously judged in the 2024 strategy report that consumption and power performed well, and energy storage showed a low before and then a high. According to the data from January to April 2024, domestic power/energy storage is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 33%/103% respectively (sales volume), and energy storage significantly exceeds expectations, mainly due to the strong global demand for large storage and the smooth transfer of energy storage. In addition, the overall recovery of consumer electronics in 1Q24, and the global sales of mobile phones and PCs increased by 19%/2% year-on-year, driving strong demand for consumer batteries, which is in line with the previous judgment.
We recommend it in order according to the prosperity of the main track in 2024: energy storage, consumption, and power battery track. Among them, the overall pattern of energy storage has improved, the head battery factory has sought the possibility of price increases, and the profit has been repaired since 1Q24. Consumption has benefited from the recovery cycle of 3C and tools, with strong overall demand and improved profitability. Chinese demand remains strong, while overseas demand is weak due to fluctuations in the European and American electric vehicle cycles. The total volume will maintain the 30% growth forecast in 2024.
Source: SINOLINK SECURITIES