Judging from the production situation of enterprises, the industrial concentration of the module link will decline to a certain extent in 2023. The market share of the top 5 enterprises will decrease by 7.1 percentage points to 50.1%. The scale threshold for entering the top five is significantly higher than that of the top ten. The capacity of the fifth place will increase from 32.2GW in 2022 to 50GW in 2023.
Judging from the global module shipments, the top ten companies in 2023 shipped 409.9GW of modules, an increase of more than 63.0% year-on-year compared to last year's shipments of 251.4GW. The threshold for the TOP10 exceeds 16GW.
In terms of production scale, in 2023, my country's photovoltaic module production capacity and output will reach 920GW and 518.1GW respectively, year-on-year growth of 66.7% and 75.8% respectively, and the overall scale of the industry will be further expanded.
In terms of imports and exports, my country's PV module exports in 2023 will be about US$39.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. This is also the first time in the past three years that exports have declined. Module exports are about 211.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, and module exports account for 40.9% of my country's module production. Module exports hit a new record high.
In 2024, the industry will face a more intense competitive environment. Combined with the production capacity plans of leading component companies, it is estimated that the production capacity of the five component companies will exceed 559GW by the end of 2024. Both leading companies and small and medium-sized enterprises will face more severe survival pressure. Various companies promote n-type batteries and components as the main technical route, and it is estimated that the proportion of n-type output will exceed 70% in 2024. As various companies have deployed n-type components, production technology has gradually matured, and large-scale production has effectively reduced costs. Combined with the benefits brought by efficiency improvement, n-type components are more economical than p-type, and have become an important choice for central state-owned enterprises when bidding. With the recognition of the power generation gain of bifacial power generation components by the downstream application end, the market share of bifacial components has increased by 26.6 percentage points to 67.0% in 2022, and it has become the mainstream component packaging technology. It is estimated that the market share of bifacial components will be close to 70% in 2024. On the application side, components have also spawned a variety of different application scenarios in different regions, such as new application scenarios such as coastal tidal flat photovoltaics and offshore photovoltaics.
Source：CPIA