1. Development of the global silicon wafer industry in 2022
The scale of silicon wafers will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in 2023. By the end of 2023, the global total silicon wafer production capacity will be about 974.2GW, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, and the output will be about 681.5GW, a year-on-year increase of 78.8%. From the perspective of production layout, the silicon wafer production capacity of enterprises located in mainland China will be about 953.6GW by the end of 2023, accounting for 97.9% of the world, occupying an absolute leading position
In 2023, the total production capacity of the top ten silicon wafer companies in the world will reach 831GW, accounting for about 85.5% of the global total production capacity, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year; the total output of the top ten silicon wafer companies in the world will reach 577.9GW, and the total output will account for 84.8% of the world, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year.
2.Development of China’s silicon wafer industry
In 2023, my country's mainland silicon wafer production capacity will be about 953.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%; the output will be about 668.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 80%, accounting for 98.1% of the global silicon wafer output, occupying an absolute dominant position in the global silicon wafer field.
In terms of imports and exports, in 2023, my country's silicon wafer exports will be approximately US$4.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. The export volume will be approximately 70.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 93.7%, accounting for approximately 10.5% of my country's silicon wafer production. In 2023, the silicon wafer export market will be more diversified, and the proportion of emerging markets will increase.
3.Characteristics of industrial development
New entrants in the monocrystalline silicon rod/wafer market continue to emerge. In 2023, the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon rods will increase by nearly 400GW compared with the end of 2022, and the crystal pulling capacity of traditional monocrystalline silicon wafer companies Longi Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan will exceed 150GW. HOYUAN Green Energy, MEIKE SOLAR, Gokin Solar, Shuangliang Eco-Energy, etc., relying on their industry background and technical accumulation as the main equipment manufacturers for crystal pulling or slicing in the monocrystalline link, are also increasing new production capacity at a faster rate. New entrants continue to emerge in the silicon rod and monocrystalline silicon wafer links.
The market share of large-size silicon wafers has further increased. Since 2023, 182 and 210-size silicon wafers have become the mainstream of the market, accounting for a total of 98%, while silicon wafers of 166 and below have gradually withdrawn from the mainstream market, accounting for only 2%.
Diversification of silicon wafer sizes. In 2023, rectangular wafers and micro-rectangular wafers began to emerge and gradually occupied a certain market share. Among them, the market share of micro-rectangular wafers has reached 20.3%, and the market share of rectangular wafers has also reached 10%.
The process of silicon wafer thinning has slowed down. The average thickness of p-type monocrystalline silicon wafers is about 150μm, which is 5μm lower than in 2022. The average thickness of n-type silicon wafers used for TOPCon cells is 125μm, and the thickness of silicon wafers used for heterojunction cells is about 120μm, which are 15μm and 5μm lower than in 2022, respectively. In 2022, the thickness of silicon wafers used for TOPCon cells and heterojunction cells will decrease by 25μm and 20μm respectively compared with 2021.
4.Industry development trends
Since 2023, more and more companies have accelerated their vertical integration layout. Looking forward to 2024, the integration of the photovoltaic silicon wafer industry will continue to deepen and the scale will continue to expand. As TOPCon cells begin to gradually increase in volume in 2023, the demand for n-type silicon wafers will increase. Not only have established manufacturers in the industry expanded their n-type battery production capacity, but many new cross-border manufacturers have also joined the competition for n-type batteries. Judging from various signs in the domestic and foreign markets, the silicon wafer industry will present a more diversified and professional competition landscape in 2024, and domestic and foreign competition will further intensify.
Source：CPIA