"The highs will definitely fall back, and after the fall, there will be a consolidation process before moving forward. At the most pessimistic, (market conditions are expected to) get better in the fourth quarter of next year, and at the most optimistic, it will get better in the fourth quarter of this year. If the prospects of the industry and the market as long as (enterprises) are always leading in the industry, there will always be your 'breakfast' tomorrow. China's photovoltaic industry has achieved world leadership, and crystalline silicon photovoltaics have huge growth potential. We must have enough 'stamina'. and 'endurance’ and move forward with confidence." On May 20, at the 2023 Annual Shareholders Meeting held by Tongwei Co., Ltd., Liu Hanyuan, deputy to the National People's Congress, vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei Group, expressed his firm confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry.
From the perspective of global demand for clean energy, developed countries in Europe and the United States plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, while my country plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, judging from China’s current situation, it may be 5 years ahead of schedule. The above goals are achieved. "Liu Hanyuan said that China's new energy photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly and currently accounts for 85% of the overall share. Among them, the share of polysilicon remains above 95%, which is an absolute leading position. There is no suspense that the world's photovoltaic equipment is made in China.
Liu Hanyuan believes that carbon neutrality is a common need of mankind. Now there are mature conditions and clear paths. Economic alternatives are fully available. There is also industrial support and material foundation. China can fully catch up with European and American countries in achieving carbon neutrality. In particular, the new energy industry represented by photovoltaic power generation has achieved cost leadership in China. In the future, nuclear power, hydropower, waste-to-energy and other clean energy sources combined will not be able to meet 10% of global electricity demand. Wind power will meet 20%, and the remaining 70% will require photovoltaic power generation.
"From a global perspective, to achieve carbon neutrality within 25 years, there will be huge space for new photovoltaic installed capacity every year. Other countries besides China can view this industry as 'pessimistic', but China should not be 'pessimistic'." Liu Hanyuan explain.
"In 2024, the company will consolidate and enhance its leading scale, technology, and cost advantages in the high-purity crystalline silicon segment, strengthen the R&D, scale, and management advantages in the solar cell segment, and further increase the market share in the component segment to maintain its leading position among global component companies. " Yan Ke, secretary of the board of directors of Tongwei Co., Ltd. said at the shareholders' meeting.
At the same time, Tongwei Co., Ltd. is implementing a series of positive measures such as generous dividends and buybacks. Recently, the company has announced that it plans to distribute cash dividends of more than 4 billion yuan to all shareholders in 2023; it will repurchase shares with its own funds of 2 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan within one year from April 28, 2024.
Liu Hanyuan further said that if a market temporarily reaches stability and saturation, one-third of the companies may have difficulty. Last year, the photovoltaic industry grew by 50%-100%. If it can grow by 30%-50% this year and next year, it will be Regain balance.
"But in this process, many companies may not be able to persist until that time. In this case, it depends more on the company's technological leadership, cost control capabilities and operational risk control capabilities. This is the time to reflect comprehensive capabilities." Liu Hanyuan said.
Yan Hu, vice chairman of Tongwei Co., Ltd., said at the shareholders' meeting that photovoltaics can be said to be one of the most profitable industries in the past few years. The money invested by the government, banks, and enterprises has been concentrated here, and competition has naturally intensified. However, photovoltaics is one of the "three new industries" and is a national strategic industry. No matter how the market changes, investment must be increased. In fact, leading companies are continuing to expand production capacity. Tongwei has also made an investment plan for 2024-2026, appropriately relaxing the investment pace and adjusting based on industry conditions.
The current changes in the photovoltaic track are mainly concentrated in the battery field, and the technology maturity is relatively high. The proportion of N-type cell production capacity of many leading photovoltaic module companies, such as Tongwei, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar, is also increasing rapidly. Each company is laying out and rapidly deploying new technology routes. Cost reduction and efficiency increase make it an advantageous production capacity.
Regarding the technical route of the battery link, what are the alternatives and options in the future? Liu Hanyuan responded that Tongwei’s R&D team will always maintain tracking research on new technologies.
Liu Hanyuan said that Tongwei spares no effort in researching photovoltaic innovation, always maintains research on mainstream technologies, and does not hold any bias against any technology. If we strive to achieve 95% understanding of other technical aspects, we can prevent ourselves from falling behind when the industry changes in the next 2 to 3 years. "Everyone has a price for transformation, and we can accept a reasonable price. Large companies should not be constrained by the market, maintain continuous research, and avoid detours, old paths, and detours."
Yan Hu said that at present, many outside capital and "latecomers" will no longer easily enter the industry. The capital side of the photovoltaic industry is rapidly tightening, while companies at the forefront of the industry will continue to expand production capacity. “In the company’s investment and development plan from 2024 to 2026, the silicon material and battery production capacity construction projects are expected to be completed ahead of schedule, and the company’s technical route layout is basically complete. The subsequent competition will be to see who has stronger comprehensive risk management and control capabilities and whose cash Tongwei Co., Ltd. is confident of becoming the best company in the industry.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gW4ff_gBkLLsLwPdD5VaHQ