(1) 0BB is used in HJT at a faster rate.
At present, Huasun and RisenEnergy are making faster progress. (1) Mass production: Huasun signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Maxwell on September 16, 2023. According to the agreement, Huasun will release no less than 20GW of high-efficiency HJT 0BB modules string welding equipment demand orders to Maxwell in 3 years in phases. The first phase of the 5.4GW of 0BB string welding equipment contract has been signed. RisenEnergy in the first half of 2024 is expected to bid for the mass production of orders, and the mass production of 0BB modules will be in August. (2) Pilot: The manufacturers are in the pilot test, including Akcome, REC and so on.
(2) 0BB has achieved a breakthrough in mass production at TOPCon.
In the past, the market believed that 0BB was born for "HJT", and the demand for 0BB technology in TOPCon was not strong. But in 2023, HJT did not expand production as much as TOPCon due to the high initial investment and production cost of batteries. If 0BB is mass-produced only in HJT, the lack of HJT penetration will limit the penetration of 0BB across the market. However, in 2024, 0BB has achieved a breakthrough in mass production among leading TOPCon module manufacturers, creating a second growth pole. The TOPCon manufacturers, such as Jinko, Tongwei, and Chint have entered the pilot stage, and we expect TOPCon manufacturers to achieve a breakthrough in 0BB mass production in 2024. In addition, in March 2024, ATW (equipment manufacturer) released TOPCon's 0BB welding mass production process, which reduces the silver consumption of a single chip by more than 10% and the module power exceeds 5W, further helping 0BB achieve mass production.
(3) 0BB is expected to replicate the rhythm of SMBB development.
SMBB is fast-paced and takes only 1 year to become mainstream. Judging from the entry speed of SMBB, the industry began to trial SMBB at the beginning of 2022, and it has became the mainstream of the market in 2023.
Considering that SMBB has just completed a round of update and replacement, the development speed of 0BB will be slightly slower than that of SMBB, about 1.5 years. We judge that in 2024, module manufacturers such as LONGi, TrinaSolar, Jinko, JA Solar, and Canadian Solar will make breakthroughs in mass production of 0BB technology. However, if 0BB is rapidly promoted, the interests of module manufacturers will be damaged, because 250-300GW new TOPCon capacity in 2023 chooses SMBB stringer. Therefore, major module manufacturers will grasp the rhythm of their own 0BB samples and mass production, and we believe that the pace of 0BB ramp-up will be slightly slower than that of SMBB, about 1.5 years.
To sum up, the 0BB has large market in the future, and TOPCon manufacturers are expected to start large-scale bidding in 2024
Source: Guolian Securities