Industry Chain Prices
Main chain, affected by inventory, the prices of silicon materials and TOPCon cells have slightly declined this week. On the P-type side, the price of silicon materials has fallen by 1.5 yuan/kg (0.004 yuan/W) to 46.5 yuan/kg (0.128 yuan/W), while the prices of 182mm silicon wafers, cells, and modules have remained the same month-on-month. On the N-type side, the price of silicon materials has dropped by 2.5 yuan/kg (0.007 yuan/W) to 53.5 yuan/kg (0.148 yuan/W), with the price of 182mm silicon wafers remaining unchanged month-on-month. The price of high-efficiency TOPCon 182 cells has decreased by 0.02 yuan/W to 0.41 yuan/W, and the price of high-efficiency TOPCon 182 modules has remained the same month-on-month. Detailed data can be found in Table 1 on page P6.
Auxiliary materials, driven by the rise in silver powder prices, the price of silver paste continues to follow suit; the price of high-purity quartz sand has dropped. This week, the price of silver powder has increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7,610 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 910 yuan/ton in this cycle. The price of the main grid front silver paste for the cells has increased by 122 yuan/kg to 7,441 yuan/kg, with a cumulative increase of 1,334 yuan/ton in this cycle; the price of the fine grid front silver paste for the cells has increased by 81 yuan/kg to 4,913 yuan/kg, with a cumulative increase of 889 yuan/ton in this cycle; the price of the back silver paste for the cells has increased by 80 yuan/kg to 7,491 yuan/kg, with a cumulative increase of 1,281 yuan/ton in this cycle. The price of inner-layer high-purity quartz sand has decreased by 10.5 yuan/ton to 31 yuan/ton month-on-month, the price of middle-layer high-purity quartz sand has fallen by 1 yuan/ton to 16.5 yuan/ton, and the price of outer-layer high-purity quartz sand has dropped by 2 yuan/ton to 5.2 yuan/ton. The price of EVA particles has fallen by 300 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton. Other auxiliary material prices have remained basically unchanged.
Module exports, the growth rate of China's module exports in the first two months was good, with a year-on-year increase of 49%; the export volume to Europe declined year-on-year in the first two months. In January, China's photovoltaic module exports were 26.6GW, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and a month-on-month increase of 58%; in February, module exports were 24.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 45%, and a month-on-month decrease of 9% due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. Among them, in January, the module export to Europe was 7.1GW, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a month-on-month increase of 41%; in February, the module export to Europe was 8.3GW, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a month-on-month increase of 17%."
Industry News
"According to Reuters, the Biden administration is expected to revoke the Section 201 import tariff exemption for bifacial modules, with the decision to take effect in May-June; in addition, in June this year, the exemption from anti-circumvention tariffs on photovoltaic modules imported from four Southeast Asian countries will expire. First Solar (FSLR.O), as the leading domestic photovoltaic module manufacturer in the United States, is expected to benefit significantly, while companies such as Jinko, JA Solar, LONGi, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar all have production capacity deployed in the U.S. It is projected that First Solar's net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2024-2026 will be $1.45 billion, $2.28 billion, and $3.19 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 75%, 58%, and 40%. The diluted EPS will be $13.6, $21.4, and $29.8, respectively, corresponding to a dynamic P/E ratio for the years 2024-2026 of 13, 8, and 6 times, respectively.
Recently, the European Commission (EC) announced the adoption of the European Solar Charter to support domestic photovoltaic manufacturing. Member states and solar industry organizations have pledged to take a series of measures to 'support the competitiveness of the European photovoltaic manufacturing industry and promote the creation of a market for high-quality products that meet high sustainability and resilience standards.'"
Outlook on Industry Chain Price Fluctuations
"March 2024 production figures for various segments: Polysilicon production reached 186,000 tons; monocrystalline silicon wafer production was 70GW; cell production was 57GW; and photovoltaic module production was 54GW.Expected production figures for April 2024 for each segment: Polysilicon production is expected to remain at 186,000 tons, flat month-on-month; monocrystalline silicon wafer production is expected to be 63GW, a decrease of 10% month-on-month; cell production is expected to be 64GW, an increase of 13% month-on-month; and photovoltaic module production is expected to be 58GW, an increase of 7% month-on-month.
In 2023, the cumulative production figures were as follows: polysilicon cumulative production was 1,477,000 tons; monocrystalline silicon wafer cumulative production was 592.5GW; cell cumulative production was 590.2GW; and cumulative photovoltaic module production was 508.0GW."