The market has become increasingly concerned towards energy security seeing how energy prices have been rapidly surging after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has upward adjusted its prediction on the potential growth of nuclear power throughout the next several decades for two consecutive years, where the ratio of nuclear power generation for the 2050 nuclear power outlook under a high-context scenario has risen by 10% compared to last year’s report.
IAEA’s outlook on nuclear power has always been on a declining slope since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, and the first increase in annual projection was seen in 2021. As pointed out by the report, global nuclear power generation is expected to see a twofold growth and arrive at 873GW by 2050 under the most optimistic projection. The current capacity is about 390GW, which is an increment of 81GW compared to last year’s prediction, and is essentially leveled under a low-context scenario.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of IAEA, commented that the world is currently marching towards a safer, affordable, and stabilized energy future, and that it is a deciding moment right now for the transition period, where the governments of various countries are reconsidering the inclusion of nuclear power in their energy investment mixes under climate change and energy crisis. However, an attainment of a high-context scenario would have to first resolve many challenges, including regulations, industrial coordination, and disposal of nuclear waste.
Why did the IAEA increase its outlook on nuclear power? It may have something to do with climate change and energy security. IAEA also pointed out that events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, constrained geopolitical status, and the military conflicts in Europe have impacted the energy stability of each country, which led to the significant increase of energy prices.
The report points out that some member countries of IAEA are currently revising their national energy policies, and have decided to enlarge existing nuclear power installations, establish advanced nuclear reactors, as well as develop and deploy small module reactors (SMR). Despite many power plants scheduled for decommissioning throughout the next several years, there are many reactors that plan to extend operation, while the new policy would also facilitate competitiveness for nuclear power in the free electricity market.
The new projection assumes an increase of 85% in global power generation throughout the next 30 years, where nuclear power could go up to 14% that is higher than the 10% level right now. Coal firing is expected to remain as the main power generation method by 2050, though the method has gradually dropped by several percentage points since 1980. The report also stated that nearly half of the reduced carbon dioxide emission required in the attainment of net-zero emission by 2050 would have to come from developing energy. Nuclear power, should it offer low-carbon heat or hydrogen for industrial and transportation departments, may help the industry field or other areas in decarbonization, which is why an acceleration in the development of advanced nuclear power such as SMR is exceedingly crucial.
(Cover photo source: pixabay)