Electric vehicles are regarded as an unstoppable trend but many people are still skeptical. The announcement of comprehensive 2021 electric vehicle sales results has dealt a severe blow to the estimates of many experts.
At the beginning of 2021, experts from various sectors were optimistic about the growth of electric vehicles. At that time, many people quoted a high valuation of 40-50% growth, but the real results dumbfounded experts.
In 2021, despite the impact of the pandemic, chip shortages, and battery supply, global electric vehicle sales still set a new record, with an annual growth of 96.9%.
Research institutions pointed out that the global electric vehicle market is highly concentrated in leading markets with China, Germany, and the United States accounting for 71.7% of total global electric vehicle sales. The top ten markets by sales account for 89% of total sales which shows that electric vehicles are highly related to economic conditions and infrastructure.
In terms of actual figures, the global sales of electric vehicles was 3.24 million units in 2020 and 6.38 million in 2021. Analysts predict that the annual sales of electric vehicles will exceed the 10 million mark for the first time in 2022, with a growth rate of 67%, which is much more conservative than the 97% in 2021.
This is an interesting phenomenon. For the past three years, analysts have always issued sales estimates that seem overly optimistic while the electric vehicle market has overturned analysts' calculations with even more exaggerated sales. Compared with the predicament of car factories not being able to find chips and failing to deliver cars, electric cars seem to be less affected.
There are many reasons for this. For example, Tesla has technically rewritten the firmware for vehicles so that vehicles can use more abundant chips to reduce the impact of shortages. Large automotive groups have adjusted from a market standpoint, giving priority to using chips in high-priced models to satisfy difficult customers. Therefore, electric vehicles, which are generally priced higher than gasoline vehicles, can be delivered faster.
Among 6.38 million electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles account for 70% of the total with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) making up the difference. This proportion is almost unchanged from 2020. Analysts predict that due to changes in battery costs in 2022, the price of PHEVs can be reduced. The price of a PHEV can even approach the price of a fuel vehicle in the Chinese market, so the proportion of PHEV may increase slightly to 32.8%.
(Image: Porche Taiwan)